FISHER FRIDAY FLYER-JANUARY 20, 2012

 INVENTORY? WHAT INVENTORY?

The Denver Metro real estate market area faces a real conundrum: LOW INVENTORY.  While the rest of the country is struggling to recover (but even they are experiencing a 22% drop in inventory!), we’re seeing increased employment, low rental vacancy, and LOW INVENTORY.  Even the HUDs are at the lowest level I’ve ever seen in the 10 years I’ve been buying and monitoring HUDs.  See the Weather Report below for more information.

 

Will our government step in and “interfere” with the housing market and “help?”  Housing: the one bailout America could really use.  Remember, it’s an election year!

 

Will 2012 be the year of a housing turnaround?  Housingwire.com reports CoreLogic cites improved employment and housing affordability will punch up the housing industry.  Are we on the ROAD TO RECOVERY?

 

While you were sleeping:  Firms Launch $450M Program to Convert REOs Into Rentals.  Gosh, do you think we can eat the crumbs?

 

 

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.92% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.88%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.  HOW LOW CAN THEY GO? 

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

OK, it could be NO INVENTORY, so we’ll count our blessings.  Our Front Range inventory is, as I heard last night at a YCRE (Your Castle) investor meeting, at a 20 YEAR LOW.  Under 10,000 active SFH listings.  What does this mean?

1.      Higher prices (supply and demand); maybe appraisals will rise, too…maybe

2.      Increased competition and bid wars

3.      Lower Days on Market (DOM)

4.      Narrower margins for investors (less profit potential until retail sale prices rise)

5.      We may now be in a seller’s market

6.      January is notoriously slow and homeowners are slow to list

7.      Homeowners will see this and put their houses back on the market

Oh, there are only 13 investor HUDs today, all that’s left have high HOAs, structure problems, and/or are over-priced.  I really don’t think HUD is worried about flooding the market; same with REOs.  The shadow inventory just is not there.  Many investors are waiting for something that will never come…all the more reason to take action now.  Prices are creeping up. I even saw a junker Aurora 80010 2/1/2 listed at $80K and it needs work!  We would have bought that for $55-60K last year.

Tomorrow we’re hosting the Rehab Acquisition Workshop.  Thanks for the great response.  We have a handful of seats remaining at $147 each (50 yard line seats!).  Lots of info & data at a price that’s hard (if not impossible) to beat!  We offer this workshop 3-4 times a year. Our next workshop will be May 19-20.

Our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com.  Register. Read. Post questions.  Network. Extend your resources.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (Feb 11 is next). Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you! 

INVENTORY :  Inventory comes and goes.  Sure the market is down, and so is our inventory.   We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

 

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?).  We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message.  You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website.  Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

 

328 S 3rd Ave, Brighton.  Buy this SS needs some love. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths brick ranch with oversized 2 car garage for $114K with an ARV of $200K.  Flip it or rent it, make some money!

 

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it.  With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

 

 

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:  As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand.  ~Josh Billings



 

 


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