RECOUP AND RECOVER

You say you need a little “R & R?” We must regroup, recoup and recover: The economy? The real estate market? Are we recovering? And recouping (our losses)? Locally, we are rapidly moving in that direction. It’s not out of hand. Lenders are still reticent. Local deals are harder to find. Local investors are traveling to exotic places…like Kansas City, Minneapolis, Orlando, Chicago…We no longer hear the “D” word (Depression) and the “R” word (Recession) but we’re not hearing much about another “R” word (Recovery)…yet, local is the exception.

New-home sales were up 7.5% over last year, yet prices continue to drop. Case-Shiller index shows prices up in Phoenix, San Diego and Miami with Atlanta and Chicago showing largest price drop.

US homeownership hits record low per Gallup report: 62%. Couple that with low consumer confidence and it will take years for us to regain losses over the past decade. Ouch.

TOUR DE CHEAPO USA. We’re back. Every 60 days or so we take a trip around our wonderful country to see what $30K or less can buy, courtesy of realtor.com: (BOLD have gone up in past 2 months)

Atlanta 1,794	Baltimore 623
Birmingham 660	Charlotte 285
Chicago 1,540	Cincinnati 719
Cleveland 1,216	Columbus 495
Dallas 224	DENVER 16
Detroit 2,279	Grand Rapids 327
Houston 284	Indianapolis 480
Jacksonville 343	Kansas City 635
Las Vegas 458	Louisville 245
Memphis 475	Miami 504
Milwaukee 331	Minneapolis 85
Nashville 64	New Orleans 115
New York 107	Oklahoma City 131
Omaha 94	Orlando 502
Philadelphia 1022	Phoenix 237
Pittsburgh 518	St Louis 963
Tampa 573	Tucson 76

The market is doing better, fewer cheapsters. Note that there still are small cities with big numbers. For those of you keeping score, “biggest winner,” St Louis, added 179 more junkers and “biggest loser,” Detroit, “lost” 2,436 junkers since Feb 28, 2012. Will the market improve? We’ll know more when we revisit these cities around July 1, 2012. I predict more markets will do better!

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.85% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.71%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Same old stuff, different day! Inventory is low, prices are rising. Highest and Best will continue. We’re in a sellers’ market and expect prices to continue to rise until some unknown threshold appears. Appraisers are consternated (Pepto-Bismo could help) to support the price creep. Cheap no more. Reality. Adapt and adjust.

5280 Magazine just came out and it covers the Denver hot hoods for 2012: Highlands, Curtis Park, City Park West…you’ll have to read the magazine to get the specifics L.

Colorado Division of Housing says new foreclosure auction sales are down 25% over last year. This is substantiated by our investor sources that frequent the auctions. Prices are up, inventory is down. Sounds like our retail market, as well!

It comes as no surprise that low-income households outnumber affordable rental units in Colorado. Rents remain high, especially for single family homes.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS part 1: May 12 will be our next free Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). REGISTER HERE for this a full day of education and networking! We’ll have nearly a dozen presentations and lots of local businesses represented.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS part 2: we’ll host our quarterly Rehab Acquisition Workshop May 19-20 and dissect (no frogs to worry about) fix up costs and property values. Click the link for more information. Meals included! You can’t afford not to take advantage of this training!

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

8147 S Brook Forest Road, Evergreen. 6-plex. Rented. 9.3% cap. Classic stone “chalet.” Swiss Haus. Lots of character and history. Across the street from the Brook Forest Inn. Now at $299,900. Extensive remodel in 2009. A unique investment!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“ Desire is the starting point of all achievement, not a hope, not a wish, but a keen pulsating desire which transcends everything.” ~Napoleon Hill

ALL MY BAGS ARE PACKED

Well, make that boxes (sorry, John Denver). Almost everyone has some excess baggage. I am moving my office today: 1776 S Jackson St, close to I-25 & Colorado. Drop by to say “hello.” We’re excited! New adventures, new challenges, new opportunities await. Moving is akin to spring cleaning, out with the old. It’s a great time to purge “stuff.” I even found 54 brand new 3-ring binder notebooks (coming to a Craigslist near you…)…now if I could just find that 50 cent (no, not the rapper) 1858 California gold piece I misplaced…

See the weather report below for exciting news about Denver’s market from yesterday’s front page Denver Post.

We really don’t think about this: Foreclosures Could Displace 8 Million Children….where do they go? Where do their parents go?

7 Things Home Buyers Hate:

1. Haunted-house landscaping (water the lawns! Trim the shrubs!)

2. Your personal paint palette (don’t you love the orange?)

3. Popcorn ceilings (jiffy pop?)

4. Wall-to-wall carpeting (everyone wants hardwood)

5. Brass fixtures (oiled bronze, black, br nickel are good)

6. Crystal faucet handles (do they still make them??)

7. Vanity strips (how many ways can you say “cheap?”)

It’s almost like this writer attended one of my training classes. I think they’re spot-on! (except crystal faucet handles…must be an East coast thing)

LOWDOWN ON THE SLOWDOWN…Momentum in US hiring, home sales appears to slow. After an inspiring March, we’re approaching the quagmire, unemployment up, “gently used” home sales are down (except in Denver, of course). The optimist sees this as a great time to buy out of state. I just got a Georgia realtor email listings of what looks like mansions for $45K. Buy at $45K, fix at $9K and rent for $750/mo. Good but not great. Don’t forget East Coast and Mid-west have high property taxes (compared to Colorado). Wade in the water, you’ll get wet, just don’t sink (water wings help!). Next Friday we’ll do a Tour de Cheapo USA (no, it’s not a bike race) and see how many homes can be yours for up to $30K …

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.88% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.73%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

No investor HUDS in Denver. Zip. Pickin’s are getting thin and slim. Rumor has it HUD will be releasing more properties. Rumor has it about 25% of all owner-occ HUDs close with cash. How can that be??? Our straw buyer market appears to be alive and well and committing fraud. Can we have a level playing field please?

I just heard Wells Fargo has a special FHA program for 600-625 FICO buyers. (no wonder they charge $325 for a 2^nd appraisal that is a “drive by”). All the while our base prices continue to creep up. Prices are rising, folks. That’s reality. Buying prices AND selling prices; the split is getting better all the time. It’s a gradual process.

Denver Housing Market Second in Nation for Quick Sales. Our DOM (Days on Market) is 33. The national median is 89 days, so we’re doing better all over. They are starting to call this a…drum roll please….SELLER’S MARKET. Bidding wars are becoming the standard. Accept it. Appraisals remain conservative and are lagging, we have to deal with that, too. How do you explain an FHA appraisal that must be good for 180 days in a market that is experiencing a 5% or higher bump? Coloradoans are being penalized by this national policy. It will take months for reality and logic to prevail, maybe even a year. So, buckle up and prepare for a bumpy ride!

Last Saturday’s Breakfast Club was a rousing success. Thank you all for attending. The Embassy Suite SE Denver convention room provides privacy and a personal approach to investing and networking and breakfast.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: May 12 will be our next free Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). REGISTER HERE for this a full day of education and networking! We’ll have nearly a dozen presentations and lots of local businesses represented.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

8147 S Brook Forest Road, Evergreen. 6-plex. Rented. 9.3% cap. Classic stone “chalet.” Swiss Haus. Lots of character and history. Across the street from the Brook Forest Inn. Yours at the reduced rate of $299,900. Extensive remodel in 2009. A unique investment!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

” All mankind is divided into three classes: those that are immovable, those that are movable, and those that move.” ~Benjamin Franklin

FRIDAY THE 13^{TH -} DO YOU FEEL LUCKY?

Well do ya? Is it me or are people less superstitious? I knew a rehabber that had to wear the same shirt, his lucky shirt, to his closings. Black cats, number 7, walking under ladders, how about “did I shut the garage door?” and drive around the block back to your house just to be sure you did what you do instinctively (and yes, the door is always shut!). Where’s the logic? It’s really a matter of confidence, of questioning yourself, whether you did this or that, was it enough and what are the consequences? It’s also a matter of having a favorable outcome with that favorite shirt so re-wearing it will repeat that outcome. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it! And don’t cross your fingers! Rosary beads won’t hurt….

MY RANT begins with a normal news feature: You better buy now: Home prices close to bottoming, to rise in 2013. You may remember one of my “sayings” is that “figures don’t lie but liars figure.” Never has that been so true as in our market place over the last few years. We find media reports that things are getting better; then we find reports of the opposite. Foreclosures are up, foreclosures are down. Prices are tanking, prices have reached the bottom trough, prices are rising. Who do you believe? Who can you believe? It’s not even an issue of TRUST. To me, it’s sound bytes (sic), sensationalism, stirring up the pot, waning confidence. Not a very positive position (don’t get me going on Europe; let’s just say we must count our blessings). Are we the world’s keeper, feeder, protector? I am not so sure anymore. Indignation or self-righteousness or both (uh, that’s self-righteous indignation, Alex, for the bonus round)??? Stay positive, remain an optimist. I do believe our economy will stabilize…in a year or two! Meanwhile, stay sharp, alert, opportunity is there.

If you really want to get your dander up, view the recent movie release of Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged; it’s streaming on Netflix. It’s enough to make me a Luddite or a Libertarian. It reminds me of Jonathan Swift’s A Modest Proposal written three hundred years ago, a biting satire (and an unique solution to starvation and hunger) that takes place in Dublin, Ireland. This is not the forum to compare and contrast political and social ills even if both center on morality. How bad does it have to get? What does it take for us to take action? Hint: check world news, self-immolation is on the rise. One grain of sand can make a difference. OK, my RANT is over….

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.91% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.76%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

It’s not all GLOOM and DOOM. Denver Metro is a bright spot. Our housing industry is recovering faster than most. We still have a few hick-ups (like the appraisal delay and extra credit scrutiny) but not as many as other states and markets. I did spot an unsettling statistic, however:

Per 24/7 Wall Street, Colorado is the 2^nd worst state for fraud (Florida is #1): we have “the highest per capita rate of fraud complaints other than identity theft.” Greely is #2 in the country! Boulder is #5 nationwide. Colorado is #11 with most identity theft complaints, #15 lowest in recession home value decline, and #8 with fewest homes late on mortgage payments. It’s just a bunch of statistics, some bad, some good.

So, rather than talk about all the trends in our marketplace (Montbello is rising, for example), come see for yourself at our Breakfast Club this Saturday, April 14 at our new location: Embassy Suites Denver SE on East Hampden Avenue, just 4 blocks East of our old meeting place. Format will be a little different: Buffet breakfast starts at 6:30 ($7 basic or $13 buffet) so we can meet, talk, and network from 7-9AM uninterrupted. They have lots of room so we won’t outgrow!

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: May 12 will be our next free Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). REGISTER HERE for this a full day of education and networking! We’ll have nearly a dozen presentations and lots of local businesses represented.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS, PART 2. Happy Canyon Group is hosting another Real Estate Shopping Tour (REST) Saturday, April 21, 2012. Only $97 for the day and leave the driving to us! Register HERE. Who says you can’t find a deal in Denver?

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

8147 S Brook Forest Road, Evergreen. 6-plex. Rented. 9.3% cap. Classic stone “chalet.” Swiss Haus. Lots of character and history. Across the street from the Brook Forest Inn. Yours at the reduced rate of $299,900. Extensive remodel in 2009. A unique investment!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“A belief which leaves no place for doubt is not a belief; it is a superstition.” ~Jose Bergamin

SO WHO WANTS TO BE A LANDLORD?

Do you? How? Final answer. Like most everything in life, you can make it fun or make it hard. We often do not realize we have a choice. Although I cannot cite the source I have heard for eons that over 50% of the landlords do not want to be landlords if they had a choice! I do not doubt that stat. We even added a new investor name (sounds like a move title, too): The RELUCTANT LANDLORD: the remodel started out as a flip, the retail market softened (no buyers, no profit, etc) so the investor refinanced and rented it out. Our local market is so strong lately, many investors set out to be landlords; it’s hard to pass up gross spreads of $400/mo or more. NEVER FORGET: the deciding question on whether you do this deal or that deal: WILL THIS MAKE ME MONEY? Simple. OK, if you don’t want to be an active landlord you can always outsource it; that’s what property managers are for. It can be painless. Your CHOICE. Choose wisely.

It appears that Landlording is doing well throughout our country: Apartment Vacancies At All-Time Lows: 4.9% from 6.2% year over year. Remember, the more units, the higher the vacancies: SFH have the lowest vacancy rates, big apartment complexes have the highest.

3 U Haul Migration Trend Reports:

Top Destination: Houston # 1, Denver is #10

Top Growth Cities: Nashville #1, Denver #3

Top Growth States: Florida #1, Colorado #9

Here’s a good sign: Initial Unemployment Claims…Hit Four-Year Low. See, things ARE getting better….

Some analysts predict we’re in for a New Foreclosure Wave, fallout from robo-signings et al. Just don’t get too confident that we’re back to Recovery Road.

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.04% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.88%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans. Did you know 30 year fixed 12 months ago was running at 4.87%?

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Lots of bidding wars, highest and best, best and final, regardless if it’s distressed or pimped out! Supply is low and demand is high. Prices rise. Simple economics. It continues to amaze me that the number one challenge for investors is and has been: WHERE’S THE DEAL? Whether 5 years ago or yesterday, getting a good deal is tough for most investors. Is the market improving? Is it shifting? Did I pay too much? Oh, WILL IT MAKE ME MONEY? A better question! Most investors want a LOW RISK deal AND they want to make a lot of money. Imagine. Who wouldn’t? Better to adjust RISK with REWARD and if you can’t stick to what you know, stick to someone who does. HINT: most successful people don’t feel the need to tell the world of their success. In our business, testimonials make it real. “If I can do it, anyone can!” There are investors that think too much and try to improve on a successful business model that needs no improvement.

“If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it.” When’s the last time you’ve heard this? Anyone that tells you it was easy isn’t telling you everything. Investors remind me of fishermen: it’s always the one I had on the hook, it was THIS BIG. I love the tag line “checks don’t lie” when the entire check goes to pay off a loan and there’s nothing left. THIS IS RISKY BUSINESS! Don’t kid yourself. Yet, this is one business where you can make up your losses quickly.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: May 12 will be our next free Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). REGISTER HERE for this a full day of education and networking! It’s the day before Mother’s Day. Take your mother, too. There will be no clowns nor magic acts (at least not planned), just lots of great information that can help you with your new (or old) business.

MARK YOUR CALENDARS, PART 2. Happy Canyon Group is hosting another Real Estate Shopping Tour (REST) Saturday, April 21, 2012. Only $97 for the day and leave the driving to us! Register HERE. Who says you can’t find a deal in Denver?

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, as it continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Find an answer. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (April 14 is our next session; stay tuned for our all-new location). Thank you for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

8147 S Brook Forest Road, Evergreen. 6-plex. Rented. 9.3% cap. Classic stone “chalet.” Swiss Haus. Lots of character and history. Across the street from the Brook Forest Inn. Yours at the reduced rate of $299,900. Extensive remodel in 2009. A unique investment!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“In a country well governed, poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed, wealth is something to be ashamed of.” ~Confucius