PLAY BALL!

OK, the baseball season is about to start officially as hockey and basketball are winding down. I am amused by baseball phrases and expressions we port over to our real estate market: home run, single, double, triple, strikeout, bunt, the “closer,” foul ball, easy out, fastball, wild pitch, hit the cycle, safe, out, stretch, on and on. The object is simple: WIN. Implied is that someone has to lose. Not so in our industry; it is possible for each team, for each person, to WIN (the proverbial WIN-WIN scenario); in fact, that is the desired outcome I pursue in my business: it has to work for everyone! Try it, you’ll like it! Batter Up!

NO confidence in housing market says most Americans, 90%, do NOT plan to move. Of those that plan to move, aprx ½ plan to buy and ½ plan to rent. The majority has a small remodel project or two planned.

Investor housing purchases doubled last year. Half paid cash. Half were distressed. Half were purchased to generate rental income.

Experian has added Rental History to their credit score formula and it looks like others will follow suit. This should improve a renter’s ability to get a mortgage (IF they pay on time).

OK, I admit it. I thought radon prevention is a scam. It’s everywhere (and many say, worse in Colorado). However, radon is the “leading environmental cause of cancer mortality” in our country. It causes lung cancer. So I’ll continue to pay $1000 for the radon pump; just remember to build that into your rehab numbers (if you have a finished basement with a legal bedroom).

Top Mortgage Fraud States: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, California, Colorado, & Michigan. At the bottom: Kansas, West Virginia, Maine, & South Dakota.

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.97% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.86%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

WARNING: EPA ALERT. OK, do I have your attention? Rumor has it that the EPA is now mailing out letters and posting letters on houses calling for the owner or general contractor to provide documentation that they are in compliance with lead based paint mitigation guidelines. We are also hearing the EPA is checking up on recently rehabbed listed houses that say “new paint” to make sure the contractor was certified and that the house was “tested.”

Our market continues to simmer…not boil. It’s still hard to push comps. Appraisers are “gun-shy.” I still find it ironic that appraisal comps include seller concessions but do not include concessions in the sale: there is often a gap IF you can find comparable properties. Also, you’re dealing in the PRESENT, yet comps are, by nature, in the PAST. After all, is not the true market value what someone is willing to pay?

If you’re a landlord, enjoy the ride! Rents continue a slow rise while vacancies continue a slow decline. Rise & fall; ebb & flow. Cagney & Lacey. Burns & Allen.

Here’s some good news: Case-Shiller index turns positive in Denver for first time in 20 months! It looks like we’re close to 2002 levels. Check out the 10-year chart that compares Denver to the 20-city composite; Denver actually looks pretty steady, not the peaks and valleys most cities experienced (composite dropped 34% since 2006 while Denver dropped only12%). Don’t you feel better now? There’s little satisfaction in being “Queen of the Pigs.”

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: May 12 has been confirmed for our next Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). We’ll have registration links up for next week. Plan on a full day of education and networking!

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Find an answer. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (April 14 is our next session at an all-new location). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

8147 S Brook Forest Road, Evergreen. 6-plex. Rented. 9.3% cap. Classic stone “chalet.” Swiss Haus. Lots of character and history. Across the street from the Brook Forest Inn. Yours at the reduced rate of $299,900. Extensive remodel in 2009. A unique investment!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday’s success or put its failures behind and start over again. That’s the way life is, with a new game every day, and that’s the way baseball is.” ~Bob Feller

HAVE CASH, WILL TRAVEL

With apologies to Paladin, we’re seeing more and more local investors spread their wings (and their portfolios) as they venture into Kansas City, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Detroit, Dayton, even Oklahoma City; Oh, and Florida and the Southeast. Bargains abound. The only “catch” is how do “do it” locally: legalities, location, travel, realtors, contractors, property managers, processes, pitfalls, local feet-on-ground, yadda, yadda. “Can you make money” remains the most important question in our business!

Who do you believe? B of A says Home Prices All Done Falling. Zillow says: Prices Projected to Fall 0.7% but rise Next 4 years. Who do you trust? (sounds like an old TV game show hosted by Johnny Carson)

Another sign we’re easing out of a recession: Unemployment benefit claims fall to four-year low.

Just in case you’ve been in the bathtub too long: How to spot a bubble:

1. Mispriced assets

2. Easy credit

3. Confident consumption

4. Political manipulation

5. Herd mentality

What are 5 common mistakes first-time homebuyers make?

1. There’s more than mortgage payments

2. They look for a home first, a loan later

3. They don’t get professional help

4. They exhaust entire savings on down payment

5. They shop for furniture before deal is closed

Here’s another discussion on Strategic Default, when you deliberately chose to default on your mortgage loan. Let your conscience be your guide!

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.05% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.91%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

You know all about ROI (Return on Investment), how about LOI? LOW ON INVENTORY. That well describes our Denver Metro real estate situation. I use HUD homes as a bellweather indicator of what’s going on: Denver Metro 7 county area:1 property in Denver (a condo on Federal), 1 in Conifer, and 1 in Kittredge (I would not count Kittredge and Conifer as Denver Metro). That’s it! Only 3. That’s slim pickins! It’s no wonder many (including me) are predicting a faster-than-average market correction to meet growing demands. Building permits are up, too! Who needs a crystal ball to predict our market future?

How about this: Colorado is #42 in USA delinquencies!

Watch for copper thieves. “In the past week there have been several burglaries to vacant homes in the Montbello area. The thieves target copper in the basement and kitchens, often resulting in water damage. If you own a rental in the area, check the property frequently. If your home neighbors a vacant residence, please notify police of any suspicious activity.”
Source: Denver Police District 5 It’s not just Montbello. Be careful out there! Oh, I have heard from multiple sources that if you paint (a $1 can of spray paint will do) your copper pipes lightly, the salvage metal yards will not accept it. So if you have exposed copper (everyone has SOME exposed), spray a little insurance on your pipes!

There’s a Colorado HOA MESS going on between HOA’s and property management companies. How can they turn this into a win-win situation with DORA’s oversight?

MARK YOUR CALENDARS: May 12 has been confirmed for our next Real Estate Investor Success Summit (REISS). We’ll have registration links up for next week. Plan on a full day of education and networking!

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Find an answer. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (April 14 is next session). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

14671 E 25^th Ave, Aurora. 4 or 5 bedrooms, 2 or 3 bathrooms for $102K with basement walkout. I’d turn this into a 5/3/2a for a retail sale. As a rental you could expect a gross cash flow of over $600/month. Demolition of backyard pool is a bonus, so is the playhouse and garden!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.” ~Winston Churchill

HUNGRY FOR HOUSES

That most certainly describes the residential housing situation in our Denver Metro market. We are Hungry for Houses. Residential inventory is at a low not seen in over 20 years. Now compare that to the rest of the country, if you can. Our prices are now creeping up as most of our country is seeing continued price decline, and, at best, some signs of stabilization. Meanwhile, we’re desperate for deals. More below in Weather Report.

Housing prices peak in May, sales peak in June, and inventories peak in July. Trulia does a great job on market analysis, even cold climate regional lags.

Foreclosures fall, but there’s a ‘rising tide’ ahead. Backlogged foreclosures are now freeing up. While statistically, foreclosure filings have dropped, many metro areas have increased (Tampa and Miami, for example). We’re not out of the woods, Dorothy.

Whistleblower Extraordinaire: Here’s a lawyer and foreclosure victim that is getting $18M for her role in uncovering robo-signings and lender errors.

How about A Dallas Palace That Cost $46M to Build, Now Asking $10M. A Bargain? You make the call!

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.02% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.84%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher on non-owner occ loans.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

So who’s House Hungry? Is it possible to pay too much? Where is the inventory? Can anyone find a deal? Relax, don’t panic. There are deals out there. Prices are also rising. It looks like retail prices are finally coming up enough to make Renovation and Resale a Reality. Rent rates remain robust (don’t you love alliteration?). The question remains: how long can this last? At what point does it make more sense to retail a house rather than rent?

Let’s explore Denver Metro FIX & SELL vs FIX & HOLD trends (and follow the logic): 1. Housing prices are rising. 2. Landlords are beating out rehabbers in getting the properties; a few thousand dollars won’t matter in the long run with a rental; lower profit potential will matter with a fix and retail sale. 3. Landlords are seeing extraordinary (rarely seen) spreads between loans and rents ($600 is not unusual!) 4. As prices continue to rise, those lofty spreads will decline. 5. As spreads decline, landlord purchases will decline. 6. As prices rise at the buy and the retail sale, that spread will rise. 7. As potential profit increases, rehabbers will pay more to buy. 8. Rehabbers will beat landlords to the deal more frequently. 9. Throw in EQUITY as a wild card and mix with TIME: How long will it take for this process? We’re already starting to see some signs of this trendy shift. Will it continue? I remember doing a 2009 rent-ready rehab that turned into a retail sale; the market shifted as we began the rehab and we shifted our focus and sold the property quickly. Full circle, full cycle.

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (April 14 is next session). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

14671 E 25^th Ave, Aurora. 4 or 5 bedrooms, 2 or 3 bathrooms for $102K. I’d turn this into a 5/3/2a for a retail sale. As a rental you could expect a gross cash flow of over $600/month. Demolition of backyard pool is a bonus, so is the playhouse!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Wanting something is not enough. You must hunger for it. Your motivation must be absolutely compelling in order to overcome the obstacles that will invariably come your way.” ~Les Brown

ATTENTION WITH INTENTION

Attention does not matter without Intention. What are you trying to do? to accomplish? What is your Intention? Are you committed? Are you focused? Alert? Once Intention is set, you must “pay” Attention. Focus on your goals. Get “it” done! Whether it’s playing baseball, practicing yoga, working on a project, or rehabbing a house, it all begins with Intention.

Here’s the latest from bankrate.com: What homebuyers want in 2012:

1. Price, condition, location

2. Maintains value

3. Move-in condition

4. Handy location

5. A functional home

6. Open floor plans

7. First floor bedroom

There you have it! No surprises. I know rehabbers are opening up kitchen and dining room space (breakfast bars).

How’s Phoenix Real Estate? Getting better. Check this Market Report from my Phoenix realtor, Sean Heideman. Interesting take on REOs and Short Sales, including charts! There still are opportunities.

Fannie and Freddie turn on the Foreclosure Spigot! Foreclosure starts are up 28% from Jan 2012 to Feb 2012. It looks like the robot-signing moratorium is over. Let the games begin!

Here’s a Short tutorial on Short Sales courtesy of AOL Real Estate covering benefits and challenges for buyers and sellers.

AOL goes to Colorado for their House of the Day, a little $7.2M cottage in Eagle, Colorado nestled into 170 acres of wildernest bliss.

More corrections coming: Home Prices to Fall another 9.1% Before Reaching Sustainability. Maybe every place but Denver is the place to buy….as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Housing Affordability Index has reached a 42-year high! OK, housing is becoming more affordable, now if we can just find jobs….

Need more encouraging news? Obama Administration cuts FHA refinancing costs. Home, home on the range….

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.88% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.75%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher. Mortgage rates flirt with record lows again (3.13% on 15-year fixed!).

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Where’s the meat? We’ve seen distressed housing prices rise in the past year. We’re now beginning to see retail housing prices rise, one comp at a time. I’ve seen a 20% bump in some areas. Is this Good News? Yes, except for short term memoried investors who remember the “good old days” of 2010 when you could buy a decent 2BR rental house for $45K…yeah, you can still find that occasional house but they’re fewer and farther between. DING! DONG! THE RECESSION IS DEAD…at least locally…at least for our market…at least it’s beginning to look a lot like 1999 or 2001, pick your favorite yesteryear.

Here’s a surprise: Denver home inventory down 33% from about 22,000 to about 14,000 (SFH & condo). It’s great to have hard facts to back up what I’ve been saying the past 6 months….

But wait, there’s more: Colorado rental rates rise as vacancies drop. 3% statewide with Fort Collins leading the jump with 9% (kinda makes you want to go back to school…not!). More evidence of what we’ve been seeing the past year.

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (March 10 is next) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory is LOW and getting lower. Supply and Demand is dictating higher prices (finally). We hope to have some good deals soon!

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“ Our intention creates our reality.” ~Wayne Dyer

BACK UP OR BACK OUT

I am hearing these couplets quite often now, especially regarding Short Sales. Do you want to be in back up position? The buyer backed out. See, they can go together. Being back up on a Short Sale is actually a good position to be in. We’re closing more and more investor Short Sales lately, must be the time of the season. Rarely is the seller placed in “deficiency.” Foreclosure no longer has the stigma it had. It’s everywhere, especially in other cities and states.

Here’s a sign that economic confidence is growing: Banks step up commercial property lending.

Dual Agency and Double Dipping: a discussion on realtor ethics and legalities; a good read! Lawsuits have dramatically increased so realtors are now asking: is it worth the risk? “I have worked dual agency in the past, but it is doubtful that I will do so in the future,” Portland, Ore.-based broker George Wiggins told Inman News. “Trying to be absolutely fair to both sides, when my stronger and longer relationship is with the seller, is very difficult and risky.”

Do you think there are opportunities in Florida? Nearly half of residential homes in Jacksonville underwater in Q4.

The national Homes-In-Foreclosure Rate is now at 24%! IT’S NOT THE MORALITY; IT’S THE MONEY: Short Sales rise as banks shun foreclosures. No need to ask why!

Here’s the irony not lost on many investors: home prices continue to fall; few can qualify and afford a house; incomes decline, yet most major city rental rates went up. There you have it: renters are getting squeezed. Rising rents make housing less affordable.

Looking for work? DFW needs Mortgage Professionals!

The latest MORTGAGERATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.88% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.83%.Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

OK, lenders are doing more Short Sales. What does that mean to us? Simple, more Short Sales; BACK UP and BACK OUT. I’ve closed more Short Sales this year than all of last year. Maybe this is the….drum roll…..YEAR OF THE SHORT SALE….If you don’t understand it, it’s not too late (well, maybe a little too late…); they’re going to be around for a long time. It’s going to take a few years for housing prices to catch up (can you wait 5 years?) Remember, our local market is ahead of the curb (sic). You could be in Nevada so count your blessings! Next, we’ll hear a song about Short Sales J, hummmmm.

SOS (same old story): low inventory, lots of showings, bidding wars, hard to get loan approval (new buyers, especially)…oh, I hear this may be softening; interesting story: banks aren’t lending out much and it’s hurting business (remember, banks LOAN money) so they’re lowering the bar. Time will tell.

Did we lose 11 years? Case-Shiller: Metro Denver home prices at 2001 levels. Remember, it’s an average. We’re seeing some properties at 1988 levels and a few at 2011; location, location, location!

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (March 10 is next) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. Sure the market is down, and so is inventory. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates.Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Experience is simply the name we give our mistakes”. ~Oscar Wilde