IT’S NOW OR NEVER

It’s great to start off with an Elvis song, even if he has left the building. “Wise men say only fools rush in,” Are you on the sidelines watching, or are you in the thick of it, taking action, “rushing in after due diligence?” These real estate opportunities will not continue at current rates much longer. IF NOT NOW, WHEN? Read Weather Report below for more information on our local market conditions. My real point is that our market is starting to bottom out, nationwide, yet those $30K house deals are easier to find:

TOUR DE CHEAPO USA. We’re back. Every 60 days or so we take a trip around our wonderful country to see what $30K or less can buy, courtesy of realtor.com: (BOLD have gone up in past 2 months) The market is doing worse, more cheapsters. Note that there are some small cities with big numbers. For those of you keeping score, “biggest winner,” Miami, added 279 more junkers and “biggest loser,” Detroit, “lost” 333 junkers since Dec 30, 2011. Most markets added more properties, especially Florida (Jacksonville continues to be the exception), Will the market improve? We’ll know more when we revisit these cities around May 1, 2012.

Atlanta 1,802	Baltimore 615
Birmingham 711	Charlotte 248
Chicago 1,487	Cincinnati 675
Cleveland 1,209	Columbus 536
Dallas 263	DENVER 14
Detroit 4,715	Grand Rapids 345
Houston 296	Indianapolis 567
Jacksonville 372	Kansas City 695
Las Vegas 541	Louisville 234
Memphis 447	Miami 571
Milwaukee 420	Minneapolis 100
Nashville 62	New Orleans 112
New York 99	Oklahoma City 129
Omaha 101	Orlando 555
Philadelphia 978	Phoenix 318
Pittsburgh 548	St Louis 784
Tampa 644	Tucson 91

How bad is it in Europe? “We are in the worst economic crisis since 1929″ reports Credit Agricole CEO as they reported 4Q11 loss of 3B Euros. Who’s keeping our world afloat?

From the does-it-make-you-feel-better department: Million-dollar foreclosures rise as rich walk away. 2011 saw over 36,000 homes worth $1M+ foreclosed.

Ohio is considering using $75M from recent servicer settlement to demo over 100,000 vacant houses.

Ever the optimist, Freddie Mac sees housing and economy to continue to improve into 2013.

Here’s another LIST. I find value in this one! Top 10 mistakes by DIYers

1. Not pulling required permits

2. Starting a job w/o proper tools/supplies

3. Poor job site preparation

4. Material skimp

5. Wrong paint

6. Poor wall painting prep

7. Poor safety

8. Inaccuracy

9. Work beyond limits

10. Failure to get a clue

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.91% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.87%.Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

IF NOT NOW, WHEN? Are you just watching? Are you preparing to jump in? Will this real estate rush pass you by? What will happen if you DON’T take action? Six months from now will you say, “gosh, I wish I would have bought a few rentals when prices were low?” Remember, like the stock market, you can make money no matter market conditions: up, down, flat.

It appears that investor sale prices continue to rise. Perhaps by as soon as this fall, rentals won’t make as much sense for the cash flow (i.e., cash flow spreads will decline) BUT rentals will make more sense from an equity position (i.e., your property will be worth more…on paper). I preach and teach to investors: do you want cash flow or do you want equity? Yeah, you can have both but one will dominate the other, depending upon where we are in the housing sine wave. As spring fights to come out (we’ve had more snow on the ground this winter than I can long remember, usually it melts after a day or two…), we’ll see more buyers…and sellers.

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (March 10 is next) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. Sure the market is down, and so is our inventory. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates.Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

533 S Stuart St, Denver. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath for $69K. Could easily add another bath and bedroom. Mountain views. Would make a great flip OR rental. This sold December, 2011 for just over $129K!

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Strive not to be a success, but rather to be of value.” ~Albert Einstein

HAPPY BIRTHDAY GEORGE & ABE

What a country! We celebrate “President’s Day” on the Monday that falls between Washington and Lincoln’s birthdays, which happens to be next Monday, February 20. Government offices and banks are closed as are many schools. We have special clearance sales and the ski slopes are packed, some say the busiest weekend of the season. Go figure. Me? I’m working. Let us honor two of our principled forefathers who led by example and held their values high in troubled times.

Is it safe to go back in the water? “The home loans responsible for blowing up the housing market are regaining popularity.” Subprime Mortgage Bonds Back in Fashion.

Here’s some SOUND ADVICE: “The state of the nation’s real-estate markets and the economy have become one and the same. Clearly, the recession cannot be fully put behind us and a recovery kick into full gear until the inventory of foreclosed homes stops overhanging the market.” Once foreclosures drop, let the recovery begin! (Oh, foreclosures are dropping…) REOs are not selling well right now (except in our backyard, we’re the outlier). So expect recovery to be SLOOOOOW as home values fall even more, and sales rise, reports the NAR. “Top fallers” begin with Boise/Nampa at a neg 20.2% with “top risers” CapeCoral/Ft Myers at a plus 25.6%. Quite a spread across our country. Check out the “boom and kaboom” chart!

From the I-feel-old department: Kiss these 10 once-popular home features goodbye:

1. Outdoor kitchens

2. Outdoor fireplaces

3. Sunrooms

4. 2-story family room

5. Media room

6. 2-story foyer

7. Walking/jogging trails

8. Luxury master bathrooms

9. Formal living room

10. Whirlpool tubs

Heck, I didn’t know some of these features were ever in vogue!

From the recourse-is-off-course department: Obama proposes extending tax waiver on Mortgage Debt Forgiveness. You won’t have to pay taxes on “gains” from mortgage mods or short sales…all will be forgiven…sounds spiritual.

Mortgages drop to new record low….again, and yet, we’re crawling toward recovery!

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.81% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.83%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

More showings, more interest, more offers, more bidding wars…it sounds like Oliver: MORE! Has our local market finally started up? I believe it to be true. It may take a couple of months for the bean counters to verify and make it official, but it looks like UP to me! Can increased sale prices be far behind?

So, where are the deals? Are they out there? That’s becoming a frequent investor question. All the more reason to network, have systems in place, and a plan. Wholesalers are still getting properties. The market still speaks, most low or no deals don’t “go.” However, there is always the chance that a particular property is that rough diamond vs sheep-clothed wolf. Know your numbers, trust but verify. Take action!

To back up my claims, Foreclosure activity in Colorado drops to five-year low during January. Anyone that pays attention to our market already knows that. Just go to a Public Trustee auction; just check MLS. Numbers are down. Is interest up???

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Find a contractor. Find a deal. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (March 10 is next) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. Sure the market is down, and so is our inventory. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

1661 Fundy Way, Aurora. Turn this Short Sale from a 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car attached ranch into a 4/2/1a. Flip this or, better yet, make rent ready and around $600/mo gross cash flow. Buy this for $76K. Great location, great neighborhood, great house.

328 S 3^rd Ave, Brighton. This SS needs some love. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths ranch with oversized 2 car garage for $112K with an ARV of $200K. Flip it or rent it, make some money! Must close soon to avoid PT Auction. ARV may be a bit off. Comps are hard to come by! It looks like this will rent for $1500/mo so you should see gross cash flow of over $600/mo.

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle.” ~Abraham Lincoln

SELF-SUSTAINING CYCLE

No, this is not a new bicycle that never stops. Nor is it a new laundry feature. Self-Sustaining Cycle is really about our ideal marketplace: like the bunny, it keeps going, and going, and going… What a modest concept; systems that run on their own. Buyers, sellers, middle men, middle women. I believe our real estate industry is adjusting back to basic supply and demand…until our government(s) tampers with a supply system where greed feeds the Large Lenders of our industry. That’s a big proviso, a BIG “BUT.” But, if they change the rules (and they will), let us know so we can play, too. Read below:

The answer is: Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Ally Financial, and Wells Fargo. What’s the question? What servicers just got hit with monetary penalties by our government. Fed and state officials announced yesterday they have reached a $25B agreement with the aforementioned mortgage servicers to cover “abuses.” Details: Banks commit “to help underwater homeowners and compensate those who lost their homes due to improper foreclosure practices.” “The principal reduction will average about $20,000 per borrower. Another $3 billion will go toward refinancing mortgages for borrowers who are current on their payments. This will enable them to take advantage of historic low interest rates currently available.” BofA will make a special $1B settlement for Countrywide’s abuses. 9 more servicers may join the settlement to bring the total to $30B.

So what do you do? Call your lender/servicer to review your “case.”

Because you didn’t ask, here are the (drum roll) Top 10 Types of Code Violations:

1. High grass & weeds

2. Nuisance (vehicles, trash)

3. Graffiti

4. Open/vacant bldg.

5. Junk, trash, debris

6. Minimum standards

7. Substandard structure

8. Neglected swimming pools

9. Dead trees/landscaping

10. Vacant property registration

I think they stretched it a bit, but you get the idea. Many local muni’s are driving for dollars finding code violations, to help compensate for devalued homes/tax base.

From the “it’s-just-a-matter-of-time-before-everyone’s-doing-it” department: Fannie Mae just expanded their online system to take bids for its REOs. Initial pilot was just launched. The internet continues to grow and entangle.

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.89% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.87%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Our local Denver market is as tight as a Super Bowl halftime performance. Inventory is low and we expect it to remain for a few more months. I don’t believe we’ll see the REO influx we’ve witnessed the past decade (same with HUDs). We’ve seen a major influx of landlording, too. The rental market is so strong, landlords are keeping our investor market exciting, raising the bid and bar making it harder for the flippant investor. As market prices slowly rise, Aunt Gladys and Uncle Pete will put their property back on the market as they bask in the Phoenix sun; Brother Phil is relocating to Chicago this summer so his home hits the market soon; we’ll see more individual sellers place their houses on the market, especially as we head into Spring.

I’m a broken record: showings up, highest and best continues, more bidding wars, low end properties are rising faster than mid to high-enders, yadda, yadda.

Tomorrow, Saturday, February 11, 2012, is our Breakfast Club at NY Deli News Restaurant. Doors open at 6:30 AM and meeting begins promptly at 7AM and runs to 9AM. Plan to attend. Find out why we’re growing! (Hint: it’s not the water)

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Network. Extend your resources just as this forum extends our Breakfast Club.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. Sure the market is down, and so is our inventory. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

1185 Wabash St, Denver. Who wants a tiny house? With an ARV of $110K you can buy this REO for $53.5K and fix to flip for another $20K. Who could ask for more?

328 S 3^rd Ave, Brighton. This SS needs some love. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths ranch with oversized 2 car garage for $114K with an ARV of $200K. Flip it or rent it, make some money! Must close by February 14 as it goes to PT Auction February 15. ARV may be a bit off. Comps are hard to come by! It looks like this will rent for $1500/mo so you should see gross cash flow of over $600/mo.

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“All philosophy lies in two words, sustain and abstain.” ~Epictetus

DEAL MAKER OR DEAL BREAKER?

What’s it going to be? Which one are you going to be? Our economy is so volatile people are reluctant to do deals, period. When’s the last time you had a “sure thing?” A “no-brainer?” No risk, no reward. We like cushions. We like comfort levels. We play things conservatively; then we wonder why the deal doesn’t work. It’s relative. Prices go up, prices go down. Same with values. The perfect argument for a hard money loan is how you will do if you don’t do the deal (you won’t): it gets you in the game, it allows you to make money, you do the deal. Real estate is underperforming in our country, just not in our local market.

It’s hard to make this stuff up:

More details are coming out on the State of Union Obama Promise of relief to homeowners. It’s an election year and homeowner relief will be played and replayed to the American public. 11 million homeowners, 1 in 4 with mortgages, are underwater. Only half (30M) are owned by nongovernment lenders. How do you spell relief? S-T-A-Y T-U-N-E-D. In keeping with extreme polarity (no, that’s not a new Antarctica reality show), House Speaker Boehner says we should ride it out with no more mortgage games/incentives (stop this madness before I loan again!). Let them eat caulk!

Related, Obama announced a Homeowner Bill of Rights to “ensure borrowers and lenders are playing by the same common-sense rules.” How novel! Will this cost taxpayers more? Better put, I wonder how much money this will cost us?

It looks like the robo-signing settlement will costs banks $25B and that it may show up as low interest rates for existing homeowners; the irony is that those with more equity will fare better than high loan-to-value homeowners.

More insanity? How about Freddie betting against mortgage refinancing?

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 3.87% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.85%. WOW! Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Showings are healthy. We’re seeing some competitive retail bidding (and competitive investor bidding will continue forever). All are signs of low inventory. Public Trustee auctions are down in both properties and investors. As our market gets tighter and tighter, we’re seeing more CRACK HOUSES at the low end: cracks in walls, cracks in ceilings, cracks in floors. I hear that structural repair companies are busy fixing, stabilizing, and securing. It’s amazing what water and a little element called Bentonite can do when combined!

Buying signs: Rents up in Denver metro area…fastest in Jeffco and the Boulder/Broomfield area.

Landlording signs: Metro Denver apartment vacancies fall to twelve-year low, rents rise.

On LinkedIn.com? Join our local real estate investor forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, continues to grow on LinkedIn.com. Register. Read. Post questions. Network. Extend your resources.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, deals, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (Feb 11 is next). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. Sure the market is down, and so is our inventory. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking, or, better yet, follow on Twitter or get a TEXT every time we get a new deal.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for information or questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

We expect a 4/2/1a in 80011 last week and it’s still in the works but we cannot post it until we have the final signatures. Expect a sale price of around $76.5K for a house that works as a flip or a rental. Keep watching our website. Hopefully, this will “hit” later today.

328 S 3^rd Ave, Brighton. Buy this SS needs some love. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths brick ranch with oversized 2 car garage for $114K with an ARV of $200K. Flip it or rent it, make some money! Must close by February 14 as it goes to PT Auction February 15.

1786 Galena St, Aurora. While not a “true” wholesale, this cute 2 bedroom house is rented for $800/mo with a lease through June, 2012 and tenants want to buy it. With a recent appraisal of $86K, this is a great property for the landlord who doesn’t want the hassle of rehab. Buy this for $76K and expect cash flow of over $400/mo!

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Business is not just doing deals; business is having great products, doing great engineering, and providing tremendous service to customers. Finally, business is a cobweb of human relationships.” ~Ross Perot