THE VIRTUAL INVESTOR

What is a VIRTUAL INVESTOR? What do they do? Is this a PASSIVE INVESTOR? Are they removed from the fray and fire? Insert “REAL ESTATE” and it makes more sense in our industry. I define the VIRTUAL REAL ESTATE INVESTOR is someone who believes in this business (and profits from it) and doesn’t want to get their hands dirty, literally and figuratively. They will protect and pay attention to their investments but not impede the process. Sometimes this investor will be a private money lender, sometimes a partner. The important element is that they are actively “doing it,” not thinking about it, not reading up about this business, not saying “someday” or “maybe tomorrow,” they are engaged and involved, just not “hands-on” micro-managers. Most VIRTUAL INVESTORS have other interests that they pursue and engorge. Sounds like a great person to partner up with! It’s all relative!

OK, our country’s real estate market is hurting. Opportunistic investors are searching the internet for retirement and investment homes. Here’s the list of The Cities Where People Finally Want to Buy Homes:

1. North Port/Sarasota, FL

2. Riverside/Ontario, CA

3. Charleston, SC

4. Ft Lauderdale, FL

5. Cape Coral/Ft Myers, FL

6. W Palm Beach/Boca Raton, FL

7. Ft Worth/Arlington, TX

8. Oxnard/Ventura, CA

9. Las Vegas, NV

10. Orlando, FL

Want more? How about 11 homes around the country that can be yours for $75K each? Wow, most look terrific!

Down Market? Housing inventory continues to drop. Nationwide, year over year, down 21% and has dropped 16 straight months.

In an experiment two weeks ago, auctioneer Hudson and Marshall successfully auctioned off over 100 “new” HUD homes to owner-occupants. Expect to see more in hard hit areas.

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.02% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.96%. Some lenders continue to offer 30 year fixed under 4%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

The holidays are fast approaching. Looks like lots of retail discounts heading your way. Many merchants are fighting for survival. This from a country that is faring far better than most…in a metro area that is faring far better than most. Who needs another reason to love Colorado? How ‘bout those Broncos? Happy Turkey Day!

It appears that good deals under $100K in our metro area are like chicken teeth, hard to come by. Investors are snapping up and outbidding each other for cash flow rentals and an occasional fix ‘n flip. Sure there are a few clunkers (see our inventory below), but most have an “issue,” like location, mold, structure, etc.

While you were sleeping…Metro Denver foreclosure auction sales fall to 42-month low! Local wholesale deals now rival or beat the Public Trustee deals. Sales dropped 28.3% year over year.

More “good’ news: Colorado apartment vacancies hit 10-year low, falling to 5%, lowest in 10 years. Greeley wins the prize for lowest Colorado metro vacancies.

Neighborhood Stabilization Program is alive and well in Englewood. Great deal for owner occ homeowners since the local agencies cannot make a profit and they completely renovate these properties (regardless of existing conditions, new roof, furnace, plumbing, siding, etc).

Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (December 10 is next). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. We’re getting great deals, more cash cow rentals and a flipper or two. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

6820 E 52^nd Pl, Commerce City. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage all for $54K. Works best as rental with fix at $7.5K. Expect rent $825-900/mo. Industrial zoning and backs to Hy 36. This REO was a F&F a few years ago so fix is light, windows are tight (and house is quiet). Rentals are in strong demand in Commerce City.

6432 W Cedar Pl, Lakewood. Rehab has begun: the master suite is almost complete. 1/3 acre and zoned R3 (that’s a triplex for the zonially challenged). Quiet ‘hood, quiet house on a dead end street. Buy this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom stucco’d house for $89K and fix to flip for around $18K or fix to rent for under $10K. Great Lakewood location.

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful.” ~ Albert Schweitzer

PAY MORE TO TAKE LESS

Is that you? Do you pay more for a property and take less? I have seen this as long as I’ve been in this industry (11+ years). Many investors want NICE houses and are willing to pay more for them, fix them up, and sell them, thus making less profit. There is nothing wrong with this as long as you understand that’s what you are doing. Don’t expect huge profits. There is usually more risk involved with potentially more reward.

Today is Veteran’s Day (God Bless America! And thanks to those who serve and have served our country) and marks the cosmic Julian calendar 11/11/11. No, our world will not end today. Most wedding chapels are booked today;it’s an easy date to remember.

Nevada tightens foreclosure laws and penalties for fraud and lenders respond with less foreclosure filings. Sounds like lenders may not have been on the up-and-up….

Thinking of investing in Birmingham? Think again! Jefferson County, Alabama became the biggest civic bankruptcy in US history at $4.15B!!! No one really knows what to do. It’s up to a Federal judge to sort out…it all started with new sewers and corruption….

Mortgage refinance goes up as rates go down. No surprise with rates hovering around 4% on a 30 year fixed. The Wall St Journal reports “For the second time in history—and the second time in as many months—average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell below 4%.”

Realtor demographics abound: from Rich Agent, Poor Agent: 58% of rich agents are male and have 11-20 years experience. Check this ActiveRain link. Loads of data and seemingly useless information (unless you’re a realtor): social media, technology, internet advertising, with charts and graphs galore. Guess what rich real estate agents do? Where do they put their advertising money?

Is a 3^rd full bathroom worth it? The National Association of Home Builders say so…to the tune of $43K increase, on the average! They also report that bad roads, odors, no nearby shopping, or metal bars on windows reduce the average house sale by $6K (each). Add 500 sq ft = $13K. Add another bedroom = $10K. Eliminating a fireplace? Deduct $24K. Funny numbers! Perception is reality. Imagine.

Negative equity = 28% national homeowners are underwater. Good news is that Michigan appears to be stabilizing after a few years of declining depressing numbers.

75% of country declined in home sale prices year over year. Check the chart and find your favorite community. Mobile and Phoenix are at the bottom: -17.7% and -17.6%.

Here’s a troubling take on the depth of morass our housing market is really in: Foreclosure backlogs could take decades to clear. That is YEARS not MONTHS. Check out state by state. They predict New York and New Jersey will take over 50 years!!! Count your blessings!

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.06% and 5/1 ARMS at 3.00%. Some lenders continue to offer 30 year fixed under 4%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

More on PAY MORE TO TAKE LESS: we see this everyday in the metro area. Many investors just want properties South of Hampden, or in Golden, or Highlands, or My Neighborhood and are willing to pay more for those properties. It’s just a fact of business. No logic involved. I’m OK with doing a rehab flip 20 miles from my home or 25 miles from my office. Of course, I’d like something closer, but price dictates the deal and the profit. Remember the correlation between risk and reward? Just like stock market investments, some investors are conservative, others are more aggressive. Where are you?

As the season cools us down, so does the weather. Darker days, Thanksgiving’s afoot, and many investors are packing it in for the winter. A YourHub article by a local realtor in the Denver Post says it all: Fix-and-flips are hard to come by. Inventory is down year over year by over 25% and will continue.

Thank you to those who attended our Fall Investor Success Summit. Turnout exceeded expectations; great information, great speakers, great networking. The REO Realtor Panel confirmed what I’ve been saying and seeing for some time: 85% of all HUDs are bought by owner occ homeowners; same with REO properties. Unfortunately, the number of questionable owner occ status appears to remain at 25% (in other words, 25% of the owner occ designated properties are purchased by an investor, often through a strawman or equity partner; in other words, ILLEGAL). I’d love a level playing field; tell me the rules so I can play by them; that’s all I ask.

Don’t forget our Breakfast Club tomorrow, Saturday, November 12, 2011, 0700-0900 at the New York Deli News Restaurant. We expect a full house as we discuss our local market conditions, what’s working and what’s not…and we have a new Investor Forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, on LinkedIn.com. It’s easy to register/sign in.

We’ve heard comments that our websites look like they are 5 years old. Well, they are. The rehab of our websites, www.HappyCanyonGroup.com and www.FollowMeDenver.com, are well underway. We’ll have special tabs for our Breakfast Club and our Training Classes and other spiffy stuff. Stay tuned.

Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. We’re getting great deals, more cash cow rentals and a flipper or two. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

6820 E 52^nd Pl, Commerce City. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage all for $54K. Works best as rental with fix at $7.5K. Expect rent $825-900/mo. Industrial zoning and backs to Hy 36. This REO was a F&F a few years ago so fix is light, windows are tight (and house is quiet). BTW, rentals are in strong demand in Commerce City.

1364 Havana St, Aurora. 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car detached garage. Rehab has begun (new furnace, new electrical panel, new hot water heater, new carpet) but needs work. Buy this REO for $68K and fix for $15K. This should rent for $1300/mo so you could cash flow over $600/mo. We’re negotiating a further price drop. Call us.

6432 W Cedar Pl, Lakewood. Someone started the rehab, the master suite is almost complete. 1/3 acre and zoned R3 (that’s a triplex for the zonially challenged). Quiet ‘hood, quiet house on a dead end street. It even has well and septic so you can go green. Buy this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom stucco’d house for $89K and fix to flip for around $18K or fix to rent for under $10K. Great Lakewood location.

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Believe in yourself and there will come a day when others will have no choice but to believe with you.” ~ Oscar Wilde

FLIP FLOPS: SHOE OR BAD DEAL?

Yeah, sometimes a Flip Flops, even if you know what you’re doing. The more you know and have systems and processes in place, the better the outcome and less likely you’ll flop. Hone your craft, get better, do better, be better. Listen, observe, take notes, and do the right thing.

I knew a contractor a few years back who took advance money and used it for lap dances and nose candy (and spent Fed Pen Time as a result); to me, it would have been easy to do the right thing; not for him. He spent more energy scheming and conning and spinning webs than he would have being honest and fair. Set the right priorities, sew and reap.

What’s going on in our wonderful world? Sounds like an old folk song…”they’re rioting in Africa…” or was that the tattooed lady with “Greece on her knees?” (Tommy Smothers, where art thou?); now Greece is on its knees. Maybe you’ve heard of “PIGS?” Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain? I continue to count my blessings that I live in America, what a country, in spite of our warts!

Morgan Stanley is Bullish on Rentals. Check out this CNBCVideo link (courtesy of my Pine Fine Friends); good data and analysis. They report home ownership has dropped below 60% for first time in history. It’s cheaper to buy than rent for lesser homes but potential buyers don’t have the credit to buy. Bottom line: buy SFH and rent and reap.

Here’s a shout out for Kansas City, where you can buy property for $25K and rent it out for $750/mo! Looks like someone is following Warren Buffett’s advice.

REO inventory is here to stay: Freddie Mac says it could take more than 10 years to unload inventory! Yeah, not in my backyard. We’ll see.

New home building down 10% from 2010 (and that year was not good). Why?

1. National home prices continue to slide

2. Weak economic recovery

3. Tight credit

The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.05% and 5/1 ARMS at 3.01%. Some lenders are offering 30 year fixed under 4%. Expect investor (non-owner occ) rates to run about ½ point higher.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Another snowfall and we’re half way into Fall. The joy of Colorado weather: snow today, sunshine tomorrow; where else in America can you ski in the morning and golf in the afternoon?

The Denver Post reported yesterday that year to year housing inventory has dropped 27.7% to 15,794 homes. Where have all the houses gone (maybe another folk song: Forlorn and Foreclosed)? The industry is predicting further decline in months to come that traditionally and notoriously are the lowest sales months in our market (December, November, January…). Year over year sales may be up but from what? They were lousy last year. Year to date, home sales are almost exactly that of last year, 33,163 to 33,128! And we think our market is good! Yes it is, compared to the rest of the country.

New Investor Forum, John Fisher’s Breakfast Club, is now on LinkedIn.com. It’s easy to register/sign in. Latest discussion is on Permits: do or don’t.

TOMORROW: Fall Investor Success Summit , November 5, 2011. 10 speakers and REO Realtor Panel discussion. This is a “can’t miss” event AND the price is right! We’ll offer a wide variety of topics and opportunities to talk with subject experts and specialists.

Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (November 12 is next) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!

INVENTORY : Inventory comes and goes. We’re getting great deals, more cash cow rentals and a flipper or two. We expect more anytime, any day, any place. Keep checking.

Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.

1364 Havana St, Aurora. Non-conforming DUPLEX. Currently a 2/1 upstairs and a 1/1 downstairs (2 kitchens) and could be a 4 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car detached garage.); the rehab has begun (new furnace, new hot water heater, new carpet) but needs work. Buy this REO for $70K and fix for $15K. This should rent for $1300/mo so you could cash flow over $600/mo with 100% financing, more with some cash down. What am I missing? $600-650 gross cash flow?

6432 W Cedar Pl, Lakewood. Someone started the rehab, the master suite is almost complete. 1/3 acre and zoned R3 (that’s a triplex for the zonially challenged). Quiet ‘hood, quiet house on a dead end street. It even has well and septic so you can go green. Buy this 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom stucco’d house for $89K and fix to flip for around $18K or fix to rent for under $10K. Great Lakewood location.

14782 E Elk Place, Denver. Montbello. HUD. Buy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car attached garage for $74K. CASH COW. Vandals ATE the copper. As a rental this could give you $600-650/mo gross cash flow. Strong rental area. There’s a model match a few blocks away renting for $1295/mo. Repairs run from $18K to $24K for a full frontal flip.

Bon Homepetit!

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“ If you don’t go after what you want; you could spend your entire life settling for what you can get.” ~ Mo Stegall