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DO YOU MAKE HOUSE CALLS?
I do! I hope you do too. We spend more and more time glued (STUCK) to our computers as we process, analyze, and evaluate deals, offers, and data. It’s no wonder our industry is overrun with ANALYSTS. With the World’s Largest Library (internet) at our fingertips, it’s easy to dig and dig…or to get detoured. Don’t lose sight of your goals, what you want, and the road map, how to get there! I may look at 50 properties a day…on-line, but there’s nothing like a field trip to view the property, the neighborhood, the street, the landscaping. Do yourself a favor and view a few homes today! Remember, you really don’t and won’t know the marketplace until you’ve viewed 100 properties or more. You’ll see trends, similarities, common ailments (e.g., just South of Fitz Med Center is rife with Bentonite/structure issues). PROPERTY ACQUISITION IS A SCIENCE. If you’re uncomfortable viewing and estimating properties and deals, take a class (see sidebar), attend an investor meeting, talk to investors, contractors, lenders; get out there and NETWORK!
OK, now you can rest easy: Despite the Market Turbulence, There Will Be No Double-Dip Recession. Feel better now?
Because you didn’t ask: Five Reasons HUD/FHA Loans Are Gaining Popularity. 4% loans? I’d be popular too!
There’s a movement underfoot for our government to back Fannie/Freddie loans that are underwater and refinance them at…say 4%. “They” say it could save homeowners $85B/yr and over $350/mo in mortgage payments. Could it work? Yes. Will it work? More will be revealed and more will be required (MWR2).
Logic continues to elude: Billions Of Bailout Dollars Meant For Struggling Homeowners May Pay Down Deficit Instead. Our fed “struggling homeowner programs” are riddled with mismanagement and poor oversight. No surprise.
How far back have we pealed the prices of housing? As a nation, we’re back 5 years or so, to 2006. Some markets have gone back 10+ years: Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Oakland, e.g. That is true with some areas of our Denver market (80010, 80022, oh, and condos…a whole ‘nother animal!)
Unintended results of well-intentioned actions: Low Interest Rates ‘Killing Savers’ Who Then Spend Less. We lower interest rates to speed spending. That didn’t happen. It hit retirees, however, and the low interest rates appear to have slowed spending. Best laid plans….
Here’s another “surprise:” Foreclosure Sales Six Times Higher Than In Healthy Housing Market. Aprx 1/3 of all US home sales 1Q2011 were foreclosures. 3Q2011 Colorado sales were at 36%.
The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.19% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.92%. Rates remain near record lows. How LOW will we GO?
REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT
Change continues. Are you paying attention? Did you see it? Sometimes subtle, sometimes obvious. Don’t be oblivious. Rumor has it we’re about to experience a “rash” (oh, that has juicy connotations!) of REO’s released for 4Q2011. Nationwide, but we’ll see it, hear it, and feel it in Denver. What does that mean? Come on, Optimists of the World, OPPORTUNITY. How many times does it have to knock before we answer the door? Really! Some people keep their cash in mattresses, too.
IKEA Kitchen Watch: Still no word yet on the first rehab IKEA kitchen or bathroom in our area.
This low interest has two effects: 1. It’s time to refi. 2. Jumbo limits will drop, it is becoming harder to get large residential loans. Are you surprised?
Cherry Creek Mortgage has a better idea: OpenHouseWeekend.org. This is a new free site to post open houses. Will it catch on? The price is right. If they can make it user friendly it will work well.
Rent rates rise, vacancy rates fall, even DOM (days on market), the time between renters, has dropped from 47.2 days in 2Q2010 to 15.7 days 2Q2011. Landlords are in control! Here’s the vacancy breakdown as Denver renters eat up single-family homes and duplexes: houses 2.3%, duplexes 1.2%, condos 3.7%, triplexes 4%. Oh, the average rental rate increase is 3-5%.
From the let-them-eat-cake department: Longmont knocks down affordable housing requirements. Looks like it’s more important to help a developer than restricted incomites.
Finally, Louisville gets CNN Money’s Top Place to Live in 2011! What an honor. Will it cause property values to rise?
Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (September 10 is next session) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY : Deals come, deals go. Pay attention, display focus, stay connected, so when that “special” deal appears, you’ll take action. Our inventory is low but we expect more anytime. Keep checking.
Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.
2121D Coronado Parkway, Thornton townhome. 3 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car attached garage. Works best as a rental. Buy this HUD for $36K. Reasonable fix up. Will rent for about $900/mo. If you got a $42K loan, your PITIHoa will run aprx $450/mo so you could see $450/mo cash flow! 3/1/1 for $36K? Times are a-changing.
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“Success is getting what you want. Happiness is wanting what you get.” ~Dale Carnegie
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HOSED OR HOUSED
Let’s face it, housing has become a major concern for more and more Americans. Whether they rent or buy, there are scams and cons going on…like the Craigslist-rent-the-house-I-don’t-really-own con where some scoundrel rents out a bank-owned house to 2-3 families, taking damage deposits and month’s rent. Or here’s my check, oops, too much, please cut me a check for the overage. Beware and be careful out there. There are contractor scams and investor scams.
Commercial Real Estate has hit bottom; now’s the time for investors. See an underperforming strip mall? Me too, they’re everywhere. There’s lots of vacant office space, too.
Buying beats renting: Las Vegas, Detroit, Mesa, AZ, Fresno, Ca, & Arlington, TX.
Renting beats buying: NY, Fort Worth, Omaha, Seattle, San Francisco.
Seller Financing: An Idea Whose Time Has Come. More andmore homeowners see this as a viable alternative to banks. How refreshing!
Freddie Mac introduces HomeSteps; $1500 “condo cash” to apply to HOAs for new condo buyers. Maybe this will help jump start the sluggish condo market. Maybe.
The latest MORTGAGERATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.25% and 5/1 ARMS at 3.03%. Rates remain near record lows.
-REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT-
So what is that SWEET SPOT? Is it a rental that will cash flow over $400/mo? Is it a fix & flip that returns $28K profit? Maybe it’s getting a guaranteed 7% return on your investment (can the stock market do that for you?). Or is it the price buyers are eager to pay for homes (I believe that is $180K - $330K in Denver Metro). Whatever your sweet tooth bites into, you want to be sure it’s safe, secure, and sensible. Be wary, be cautious, be careful, but be decisive. DO IT.
IKEA Kitchen Watch: Still no word yet on the first rehab IKEA kitchen or bathroom in our area.
Lots of NOO lenders out there willing to lend to investors. Expect 30 year loans to run 4.625% on up, depending upon your credit and the deal. It’s hard to beat!
Wholesale deals are down. Our market appears to be tight. More 4Q2011.
Rentals still are strong, rent rates continue to rise as vacancy rates fall. Supply/demand rules.
Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club(September 10 is next session) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY :Deals come, deals go. Pay attention, display focus, stay connected, so when that “special” deal appears, you’ll take action.
Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.
258 N 6th Ave. Brighton. HUD. Buy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 1 car detached garage for $59K and do a rent ready fix for $13K, or, fix at $17K and flip at $110K. Should cash flow over $500 as a rental! House and ‘hood have a nice “feel.”
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“Happiness is not something you postpone for the future; it is something you design for the present.” ~Jim Rohn
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FEAR IN HOUSING
Hunter Thompson won’t mind if we bounce off his Loathing. It is FEAR. Simple, plain, on all socio-economic levels. Rationale has nothing to do with it: PERCEPTION IS REALITY.(See our RE Weather Report below for a special Breakfast Clubdiscussion this Saturday) If you’re like me, this whole debacle is both fascinating and frightening. Time will help as we separate our emotions from the facts. It helps to stay on track with a “half-full” attitude and truly believe we will not only weather this storm but build a resort on top of the record“snowfall “ (or was that a dude ranch on top of the BS/manure?).
So there is some good news out of all of this. Huge is that the Fed will keep interest rates low through 2013. So what? What does that mean to us? More buyers…maybe. Lower loan rates…probably….
Oh, more “good” news: Feds eye plan to convert foreclosed homes into rentals. We heard those rumors 6 months ago; looks like they may come to fruition. I just obtained a copy of the “RFI” Fed Housing Finance Agency is asking for “help” in the following areas/programs: rentals, lease options, joint ventures, straight purchases, property management, etc. I guess if our country can buy General Motors they can become a landlord. MarketWatch has zeroed in on 92,000 foreclosed houses to be converted into rental units. Other sources put that number at 250,000.
From the “isn’t-it-obvious” department: 5 Reasons Why Real Estate Deals Collapse:
1. Banks aren’t lending money
2. Buyers want perfection
3. Appraisals come in too low
4. Short sales are a nightmare
5. Buyers get cold feet
Any deal I’ve had that has fallen meets one of these reasons.
But wait, there’s more….
Mortgage rates keep falling …approaching a record low.
The latest MORTGAGERATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.19% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.92%. Rates are dipping; HOW LOW CAN IT GO???
-REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT-
This Saturday our Breakfast Club (August 13, 0700-0900, NY Deli News Restaurant on E Hampden) will discuss the USA credit downgrade, the market crash and how they impact:
- Renters 6. Homesellers
- Landlords 7. Realtors
- Lenders 8. Contractors
- Homebuyers 9. Investors
- Homeowners 10.Consumer Confidence
Oh, and the growing trend of investor reticence and hesitance. Plan to attend. It will be interesting! Do multiple recessions make a deep depression (and what kind of drugs do you take for that?)?
IKEA Kitchen Watch: No word yet on the first rehab IKEA kitchen or bathroom in our area.
Our market remains mired in muck and myth (rumor has it).Many national markets are doing poorly; our Denver Metro Market is doing better than most. We’re not seeing the deals we were in the mid-priced houses (bread & butter). I believe that will improve as the casual investor decides to exit our market and pursue other ventures. I see this every year. Investors jump into our marketplace in June / July (rather than March/April) expecting to fix & flip by August. You’ve heard me say this before: we get our best deals in the 4th Quarter. Be patient!
Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!),E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY : I am not sure there’s been a better time to build your rental portfolio than NOW.
A NOTE on inventory: Deals come, deals go. Pay attention, display focus, stay connected, so when that “special” deal appears, you’ll take action.
Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT: Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.
6691 Albion St, Commerce City. Bank reduced so we’re selling this 3 bedroom, 2 bath with carport tri-level for $52K.Put on new siding & windows and it will sell well. As a rental should cash flow over $400/month! It ain’t pretty, but it’s CHEAP, esp for a 3/2.
1344 Sable Bv, Aurora. Townhouse. Buy this 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath, 1 car garage unit for $46K and rent it for $975/mo. Fix is in the $4-7K range. This should cash flow over $500/mo after HOA dues!
258 N 6th Ave. Brighton. HUD. Buy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 1 car detached garage for $59K and do a rent ready fix for $13K, or, fix at $17K and flip at $110K. Should cash flow over $500 as a rental! House and ‘hood have a nice “feel.”
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“The next time you encounter fear, consider yourself lucky. This is where the courage comes in. Usually we think that brave people have no fear. The truth is that they are intimate with fear.” ~ Pema Chodrin
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FREE FALLIN’
Stock market? Real estate prices? Unemployment? Mortgage interest rates? What else is falling quicker than a boxer on the take? At least our government remains solvent. Looks like investors world-wide think otherwise. Is it a Viral Spiral? Are we in for a long cold cruel winter? Too many questions, not enough answers. In case you were sleeping yesterday, the Dow dropped over 500 points, worst single day hit since Oct, 2008. Gold, anyone?
B of A and HUD settled: B of A will adjust 57,000 loans at an undetermined cost estimated to be over $100M.
Is this GOOD NEWS? Mortgage rates plummet on debt deal news…..How about a 15 year mortgage at 3.54%, a record low!
What are the 6 Worst Fixes for the Money from Remodeling magazine?
1. Home office remodel 4. Upscale master suite addition
2. Backup power generator 5. Bathroom addition
3. Sunroom addition 6. Upscale garage addition
10 Metros with fast-moving real estate(lowest median inventory age):
- DENVER 6. Anchorage
- Tampa/St Pete 7. San Francisco
- Oakland 8. San Jose
- Fresno 9. Stockton
- Bakersfield 10. Detroit
Top First Time Buyer Cities (affordability, age, household income, down payment):
- Cincinnati 4. Indianapolis
- DENVER 5. Sacramento
- Gainsville, FL
America’s weakest housing markets, based upon vacant houses, rental vacancies, housing units and unemployment(courtesy of 24/7 Wall St):
- Tucson, AZ 6. Dayton, OH
- Indianapolis, IN 7. Detroit, MI (8th tie)
- Memphis, TN 8. Kansas City, MO
- Atlanta, GA 9. Saint Louis, MO
- Baton Rouge, LA 10.Oklahoma City, OK
The latest MORTGAGE RATES: 30 Year fixed at 4.35% and 5/1 ARMS at 2.89%. Rates are dipping; Will it be enough to stimulate our economy?
-REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT-
Free Falling may describe investor confidence in real estate. We continue to see a healthy dip in sale prices of properties that need a lot of work. Sure, we’re still seeing (and hearing)“Highest and Best” as realtors and lenders encourage investor bidding wars (real AND imagined).
I spoke this week with a business man who frequents the Public Trustee auctions. That volatile market goes up, then down with a bidding war on a slug and a star goes for a song. Further to the point, the wholesale deals we’re getting (see below) compare toe to toe with auctioned properties. Perception is reality: if you think you have a deal, you do! Now, how can we get that adrenaline rush going “mano a mano” with HUD or Wells Fargo?
We have one or two slots open for our REST in Denver,Saturday, August 6, 2011. This bus tour takes a small group of investors around Denver Metro estimating fix up costs and viewing potential bargains. Educate as we calculate.
No word on the first rehab IKEA kitchen or bathroom in our area. Will it be a selling point or a novelty? I can’t get over how narrow the IKEA bathroom sink cabinets are…how European….
So Denver does have fast-moving real estate. Our median inventory age is 30 days, a 36% positive change year over year. The next closest city is Tampa at 43 days. Count our blessings. Houses are selling, people are moving! Now I wonder how many of these are REOs and distressed properties….
According to Cyberhomes.com Denver is #2 in our country for first time homebuyers! Market info: median value $385K, median income $49.5K, Unemployment 5.6%, job growth 0.89%.
John Schaub is coming to Denver. John will be hosting aWealth Building weekend class August 20-21 in Denver. Find out why John’s considered an “old master” in our industry. Register at his website www.johnschaub.com.
Got your finger on our real estate market pulse? Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate your feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings(August 13 is our next meet). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, Text, Tweet, Facebook (yeah, it’s a verb!), E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY : LOTS OF DEALS TO CONSIDER IN 5 METRO CITIES: Now’s the time to buy!
A NOTE on inventory: Deals come, deals go. Pay attention, display focus, stay connected, so when that “special” deal appears, you’ll take action.
Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary (is that small enough?). We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark or TWITTER or TEXT:Read the side bar (top left). If you don’t want to tweet, follow the instructions and we can send you a text message. You’ll be notified when we put a new property up onto our website. Simple. Some of our properties never make it to this blog/newsletter.
6691 Albion St, Commerce City. Bank reduced so we’re selling this 3 bedroom, 2 bath with carport tri-level for $52K. Put on new siding & windows and it will sell well. As a rental should cash flow over $400/month! It ain’t pretty, but it’s CHEAP, esp for a 3/2.
71 Newark St, #D, Aurora. Condo penthouse, opens to open space. Buy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage unit for $49Kand rent it or flip it. 1160 sq feet, roomy and quiet.
258 N 6th Ave. Brighton. HUD. Buy this 3 bedroom, 2 bath with 1 car detached garage for $59K and do a rent ready fix for $13K, or, fix at $17K and flip at $110K. Should cash flow over $500 as a rental! House and ‘hood have a nice “feel.”
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
“No person will make a great business who wants to do it all himself or get all the credit.” ~Andrew Carnegie
Posted in Wholesales | No Comments »
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