RESOLUTION OR REVOLUTION?

Pick one.  Are you resolved to make changes in your life, your business?    Maybe it’s “evolution.”  We will be facing Major Changes in 2011.  Plan ahead, think ahead, sort scenarios, and take action. Take control, don’t sit on the sidelines (broken record alert) WATCHING AND WAITING for things to happen. Know your options.

 

Tomorrow begins a new year. Celebrate your victories, no matter how small. Plan out and map out what you want 2011 to look like, personally and professionally.  Create S.M.A.R.T. goals:

 

Specific

Measurable

Attainable

Realistic

Timely

High on the news hits as we enter 2011 is the rise of mortgage rates. 30 Year fixed to 5.02% and 5/1 ARMS at 4%. If you haven’t, refi now!

Most big cities continue to grow. Here’s some that are running out of people! Yeah, lots of houses for sale, too!

This BLOG is becoming a DICHOTOMY OF DUALITY. Good news, bad news, good news….So, good news: Rise in signed contracts (residential) lifts housing market.  They report the main reason is that more are buying foreclosed homes.

• Now some bad news: Home prices falling faster in biggest US cities:  Per Case-Shiller, Home Prices Slump Across the Board. All 20 index markets report price drops. 6 cities reported new lows since the 2006 peak: Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Portland, Seattle, and Tampa. Biggest drop in 1 year: Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit, and Portland. Denver, among Pig Queens, fared much better: just behind NYC and Boston year over year.
  
  

2011 Housing Market Forecast: here’s an interesting comment from Barbara Corcoran, real estate guru on 2011 buying advice: “Do not wait. If there’s one thing I learned about this real estate is that it’s very slow to unwind and usually takes years to do it. But once it decides to turn around, those prices move up very quickly, and you’ll just be joining every Tom, Dick and Harry bidding on the same house. If you have an inclination to move, you’ll get no better time than now, with cheap money, cheap prices and an embarrassment of riches to choose from. Why wouldn’t you buy now if you were so inclined? The only thing you need is a little courage.”  It sounds like good advice for you lions out there!

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

On the local front it’s business as usual. 

 

Sure, some lenders are keeping homes off the market.

Sure, HUD is slowly rolling out their inventory (1293 listings in Colorado today!).

Sure, sellers continue to set unrealistically high asking prices.

Sure, lenders remain in control, raising interest rates while tightening loan requirements.

Sure, houses don’t sell well in December.

 

Yeah, business as usual!

 

FirstBank fined $50,000 by FDIC for improper referral fees in a real estate venture.

Colorado Banks want to lend more, but stifled by regulations! What a surprise!

Invest in yourself!   The biggest obstacle investors run into is HOW TO FIND A DEAL?

Mark your calendars: we’re hosting a Rehab Acquisition Workshop January 29-30, 2011 in the DTC. Click on the link for more information or call us We’re focusing on the two most critical competencies in real estate investment:

⌂       How to estimate rehab fix up costs

⌂       How to estimate After Repair Value (ARV)

 

 

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (Jan 8, 2011 is next) meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!   

 INVENTORY

 

It’s up, it’s down. We’re picky.  Our deals MUST make sense.  Most don’t. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary.  We post ‘em when we get ‘em so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!

We have single family homes, condos, and multi-family deals in the works. Let us know what you’re looking for.  We just might have it coming up any time!

1812 S Hazel Ct, Denver. REO, buy at $72K, fix around $25K. Great rent to own, flip, or rental. Someone has done some great things with this already. It just needs you to make it whole. I’d recommend doing basic fix up and let your lease/optionee do the rest.

369 Troy St, Aurora. REO. Check out the pix! This 5 bedroom, 3 bath, 1 car garaged home has great curb appeal; It’s pretty!  Should flip or rent well.

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:    
Life is the process of finding out, too late, everything that should have been obvious to you at the time. ~John D. MacDonald

 

 

 

HAPPY HOUSING DAYS

I know it’s smarmy, but all of us at Happy Canyon Group wish the best to you and your family/friends as we celebrate Christmas and Hanukkah.  This is a time to count our blessings and what these holidays really mean: Santa or Christ? Gifts or Giving? Lights or Songs?

How frustrating it must be to negotiate in good faith with your bank only to have them foreclose? Or to lose your job over the holidays?  It’s no surprise that there is a direct relationship between housing and employment. The 2010 census reports just came out. Here’s a few significant points identified by the Huffington Post:

Growth rate is 2^nd slowest in our history, just above the Great Depression

 

South (14.3%) and West (13.8%) had fastest growth. (NE 3.2%, Midwest 3.9%)

Rapid growth in Arizona (24.1%) and Nevada (35.1%); population decline in Midwest

Michigan’s population declined 0.6% from 2000 to 2010

Top 5 populous states are California, Texas, NY, Florida and Illinois

Bottom 5 populous states: Wyoming, Vermont, North & South Dakota, and Alaska

Congressional gains & loses: Texas +4, Florida +2; Ohio -2, NY -2; 6 states gain 1, 8 lose 1

OK, best cities to find a job (Huffington Post): San Antonio, Cleveland, Milwaukee, DENVER (1.18 unemployed persons per advertised job), Salt Lake City, Austin, Boston, Hartford, Baltimore, NY City, San Jose, and Washington, DC.

AND  10 States Where Home Prices Have Actually Risen in Last Year: Indiana,  Kentucky, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Texas, Maine, Louisiana, North Dakota, Alaska, West Virginia, and District of Columbia.

Where is the overlap of employment and home prices?  Do you think those areas may be in a good growth position? What about real estate investments?

Rising interest rates + holiday season = Ho Ho Hum Home Demand.

Where’s the Interest?  RATES REMAIN STATIC. They are starting to bounce: 4.96% on 30-year fixed and 3.8% on 5/1 ARMs.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

As a nation, our real estate industry appears to be in turmoil.  Locally, we’re no exception.

Interest rates are up

Mortgage apps are down

Lending requirements are tighter

Many condo associations are facing solvency issues

Lenders are facing increased government scrutiny on

practices and procedures

People have to live somewhere

This sounds like a Molotov Cocktail waiting to explode. Can you see opportunity?  Me too!

Here’s a comment concerning the growth of HUD home inventory from the Denver Business Journal: “Now, there are even more for-sale HUD homes nationwide, and in Colorado, than during the S&L crisis, partly because of higher overall housing inventory, according to brokers.”  Now if they can just get their new contractors practices and procedures in place….

TREAT YOURSELF TO TRAINING.  The biggest obstacle investors continue to run into is HOW TO FIND A DEAL (or IS IT A DEAL?).

Mark your calendars: we’re hosting a Rehab Acquisition Workshop January 29-30, 2011 in the DTC. Click on the link for more information or call us. We’re focusing on what I believe to be the two most critical competencies in real estate investment:

How to estimate rehab fix up costs

How to estimate After Repair Value (ARV)

Invest in yourself!

 

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (Jan 8, 2011 is next) meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!  

 

INVENTORY (what?)

We’ve slowed down, too. One of our problems is that we’re picky.  The deal HAS to make sense.  Most don’t. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary.  We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!

We have single family homes, condos, and multi-family deals in the works. Let us know what you’re looking for.  We just might have it coming up any time!

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:    
Don’t ask yourself what the world needs; ask yourself what makes you come alive. And then go and do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive. ~Harold Whitman

WISE MAN OR WISE GUY?

IT’S ETHICS

As 2010 nears completion it’s a great time to assess the past year, count our blessings, and plan for the coming year.  Wisdom is priceless, the result of experience. Being a “wise guy” now has a connotation of being surly, not so honest, placing value on greed regardless of ethics. As Christmas fast approaches we are reminded (often in song and verse) of the Three Wise Men, Kings, who acknowledge the birth of another “king.” We often associate “kings” with leaders as we associate leadership with wisdom.  Most of us work hard to “stay on track” and do the right thing; yet we are constantly reminded of those who stray, who take advantage of others.  In our industry we hear about the EVILS, not the GOOD DEEDS.  It “sells” more newspapers. I encourage you to count your blessings and to make each moment count!

What’s going on in our industry? Realty Trac reports “Foreclosures Fall to Lowest Level since 2008 on Robo-Signing Delays.”

CoreLogic reports 3^rd month of depreciation! Idaho leads (-15%) followed by Alabama, Oregon, Arizona, and Florida.

More? Some GOP committee members say the financial crisis and housing bubble burst were caused/created by our government, especially Fannie, Freddie and FHA. And we foot the bill.

Can’t decide where to put the bucks on a rehab: Curb Appeal Is Still King, biggest bang for your buck. Garage door replacement, fiber-cement siding and wood deck are next in line.         .

Where’s the Interest?  RATES REMAIN LOW. They are starting to jump up: 5.19% on 30-year fixed and 3.77% on 5/1 ARMs.

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

How are we doing locally? Tis the season to SLOWDOWN. It’s a great time to buy, and not so good to sell.  No one wants to look at houses around Christmas. We hope January will kick off the year with hungry homeowners-to-be.

Denver Business Journal gives us a city by city housing vacancy rate with Denver at 8.15%. Worst is Crested Butte at 26%, best is Dillon at 0.77%.

Denver Post cites Colorado Housing Division report that Denver home rental vacancies are lowest on record, 2.9% with average monthly metro rent at $1,041.  Boulder area is at 1.4%.

Which report is right? Both, the devil is in the details.  How can you compare apples with oranges?

What better way to prepare for 2011 then by treating yourself to training.  The biggest obstacle investors continue to run into is HOW TO FIND A DEAL (or IS IT A DEAL?).

Mark your calendars: we’re hosting a Rehab Acquisition Workshop January 29-30, 2011 in the DTC. Click on the link for more information or call us We’re focusing on what I believe to be the two most critical competencies in real estate investment:

How to estimate rehab fix up costs

How to estimate After Repair Value (ARV)

If you can master these, you are on your way!  Invest in yourself! Check us out.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (Jan 8, 2011 is next meeting) Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!   

INVENTORY

We’ve slowed down, too. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary.  We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!

ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract.  We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Arizona (just kidding).

2510 E 68^th Pl, Denver. Estate. Well preserved (for 1970). Buy for $89K with ARV at $180K. FU at $20K to rent, $40K to flip. Lots of basic fixin’ up. RENTAL MATH: buy & fix at $109K, refi at aprx $110K loan. PITI of $800/mo with est rental gross income of $600/mo. Call us for more information.

11091 E 6^th Pl, Aurora. REO. Buy this Estate property for $92K.  Rent it out with fix under $5K or fix to flip at $20K. Backs to 6^th Av and is right across street from elementary school. Should be a strong rental. RENTAL MATH: buy & fix at $97K, refi 80% for $97K loan, PITI of $700/mo so should gross $600/mo. Call for details.

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:    
For every minute you are angry, you lose sixty seconds of happiness. ~Author Unknown

 

OPTIMISTS DO IT BETTER

Happiness brings success, success does NOT lead to happiness! The January 2011 issue of Success Magazine CD bonus features Shawn Achor’s Happiness Advantage where he identifies predictors of happiness and success: intelligence is only 25%, add optimism, social support, and your ability to manage/control stress/attitude to the mix and you have a definitive formula for success and happiness. Half full glass anyone?

Home Prices Decline Third Month in a Row. As a nation, we have not reached the bottom (read weather report below to see that Colorado is the exception to this). 13 of 50 metro markets are at the lowest levels since the slide began: Charlotte, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Miami, Nashville, Orlando, Philly, Portland OR, Richmond, Seattle, Tampa, Tucson and Virginia Beach.

Housing Watch asks the age-old question: which is worse, many foreclosures or few foreclosures. This presents an interesting conundrum. You make the call!

Here’s a fascinating read from Forbes on 15 Shady Landlord Schemes and How to Thwart Them.  It’s no wonder GREED is a deadly sin! The duct-taper, the heat miser, the drop-in, on and on. Oh, add usurious late fees and dicey rent-to-owners. Ouch. Be careful out there.

Where’s the Interest?  RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping up (‘tis the season): 4.55% on 30-year fixed and 3.44% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows!  Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower (they may not)?

 

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

How about some good news? OK. Denver Home Prices Outperforming Nation. 

Denver  “avoided the extreme run-up experienced nationwide” since January 2002, and “subsequently fell by much smaller margins [down 29.9 percent] and have recovered more rapidly than the rest of the nation,” the report says.

It says average home prices in the Denver area are now 18.5 percent below their all-time peak of August 2005, half the national price decline of 37 percent over that same period.

Feel better? Maybe a little? Be optimistic, remember Monty Python’s advice: “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life!”

Now how about some bad news (tell me if there’s a contradiction here) ?  Economic uncertainty, seasonal slowdown drive down sales of existing homes.  Metrolist data just came out.  We had over 20,000 homes listed last month. I would be curious to see the breakout of REOs and Short Sales vs “normal” listings. Also year over year.   I would expect to see REO percentages down (i.e., not as many as last year) and Short Sales numbers up….

Mark your calendars: we’re hosting a Rehab Acquisition Workshop January 29-30, 2011 in the DTC. You can register online. Click on the link for more information or call us.  The biggest obstacle investors continue to run into is HOW TO FIND A DEAL (or IS IT A DEAL?). We’re focusing on what I believe to be the two most critical competencies in real estate investment:

How to estimate rehab fix up costs

How to estimate After Repair Value (ARV)

If you can master these, you are on your way!  Check us out, have some fun and learn.

Don’t forget our Breakfast Club tomorrow, Saturday, December 11, 2011, at New York Deli News Restaurant at 0700 (that’s AM).  Find out what so many seasoned investors already know. No speakers, no fees, just networking, rumors and recommendations. 

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!   

INVENTORY

Like the tide, our inventory rises and falls. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary.  We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!

 

ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract.  We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Arizona (just kidding).

 

11091 E 6^th Pl, Aurora. REO. Buy this Estate property for $92K.  Rent it out with fix under $5K or fix to flip at $20K. Backs to 6^th Av and is right across street from elementary school. Should be a strong rental. RENTAL MATH: buy & fix at $97K, refi 80% for $97K loan, PITI of $700/mo so should gross $600/mo. Call for details.

 

Bon Homepetit!

  

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

People are just about as happy as they make up their minds to be. ~Abraham Lincoln

 

‘TIS THE SEASON TO BE BUYING

Fa la la la la la la. Deck your house with lots of money (oops, that’s holly). While housing BUY signs are everywhere, few are buying. Why? BROKEN RECORD ALERT…

 7 REASONS HOUSES ARE NOT SELLING

1.   High unemployment

2.   Government uncertainty and lack of pay-me-now-fail-me-later programs

3.   Stock market fluxuations (how many of us have recovered to 2007 levels???)

4.   Real estate value uncertainty (is it really worth it? Really?)

5.   Low consumer confidence (why WOULD I want to buy a house?)

6.   Tight lender requirements (do they really want to loan you money? Really?)

7.   December (move in by December 24^th and we’ll provide the Christmas tree or the big screen TV)

 

HOW LOW WILL IT GO?  ARE WE THERE YET? Sounds like we’re on a drive with Mom and Dad and the kids are impatient. No surprises. WE ARE IMPATIENT. When will it bottom out?  I suggest to you that we’ve reached bottom in some markets already. Unfortunately, as a country, we are still falling. (“Free Falling” as Tom Petty would say) Prices continue to drop, values continue to fall, Is the end in sight?  Many businessmen and investors think not. So they wait…and watch. Who knows?  There are businesses that are failing AND there are businesses that cannot keep up with the work. Sounds like capitalism to me. Let it work, let it right itself.

Here’s a surprise: Home prices falling faster in most metro areas reports S&P/Case-Shiller. Hardest hit: Tampa, Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, the usual suspects! How hard? Over 28% down from July 2006 peak.

Here’s another surprise: New Credit Scoring Hinders Homebuyers.  No one said this would be easy!  If you think it’s hard to buy a SFH, try buying a condo! Bargains abound! Potential buyers are having great difficulty getting condo loans. Cash is king. You can get great deals if you have the cash.

Where’s the Interest?  RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping up (‘tis the season): 4.55% on 30-year fixed and 3.44% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows!  Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower (they may not)?

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Now that December is upon us we expect our local Denver market to slow down even more.  No one really wants to move in December unless they have to (really!).  December has traditionally been the slowest month of the year (RE sales-wise); this year will be no exception.

That being said, lenders are motivated to get their inventory OFF THE BOOKS by end of year. 3 of our WHOLESALE DEALS fill that bill.  A motivated seller can be a wonderful thing!

Investors continue to keep the housing market propped up.  We’re still doing deals, more with cash and hard money than before (remember, lending is artificially tight, esp for investors).  BROKEN RECORD ALERT #2- Can you make money? Is there a deal out there that makes sense? Can you really flip a property? YES is the answer with many qualifiers. Denver real estate is in much better shape than most of our country. Savor and ride the wave! You, too, can be a landlord!

The Colorado State Housing Division just released a report that Apartment Rents Increase in Colorado and vacancies decrease. Average apartment rents rose to $871.78/mo and vacancies are down to 5.5%. Remember this report is on apartments; 2-4 units are better, SFH rentals, better yet.

Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (December 11 is next date) meetings. Thank you all for your news tips and leads!  If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW.  Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!   

 INVENTORY

Like a spring creek (I know, Winter is afoot), our inventory is rising, not due to snowmelt, but because  lenders are slowly releasing their inventory.  We’re providing a NEW FEATURE: RENTAL MATH. Let us know if it should stay or go.  We’re also about to dive into either Twitter or instant texting when we get new wholesale deals.  We still hate e-mail pollution that is rampant in our industry (I struggled with sending out 5 e-mails per month while some investors send out 5 per day!).  Some people want to see a potential deal as soon as it’s available. Is that you? Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary.  We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!

 

ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract.  We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Arizona (just kidding).

 

1546 Trenton St, Denver. REO 4plex of 1 bedrooms with over 2400 total sq ft. What a wonderful Christmas present for someone! Do the math, this adds up. 3 units are currently rented so no most fix up is deferred. Buy at $130K, fix the vacant unit for $5K.  (RENTAL  MATH: buy & fix at $135K, refi 80% LTV, any appraisal over $170K gets all your money back (this can be done!); PITI will run around $1100/mo; gross rents will be over $2000/mo. Take that to the bank. Call us for details.

14425 E 47^th Av, Denver. REO. Montbello. Buy this 3 bedroom REO for $70K fix to flip for $18K or fix to rent for $8K. Should rent for $1100+/mo. Oh, the RENTAL MATH (it was the monster math): buy & fix at $78K, refi 80% LTV so this would have to appraise for $100K or more. PITI on $80K loan is aprx $600/mo. This could gross over $500/mo after PITI. Call us for details.

11091 E 6^th Pl, Aurora. REO. Buy this Estate property for $92K.  Rent it out with fix under $5K or fix to flip at $20K. Backs to 6^th Av and is right across street from elementary school. Should be a strong rental. Using above RENTAL MATH: buy & fix at $97K, refi 80% for $97K loan, PITI of $700/mo so should gross $600/mo. Call for details.

21092 E 45^th Av, Denver. Green Valley Ranch. It’s BACK. This auctioned home was U/C with a retail buyer and it’s falling through. Buy this 3 bedroom for $87.5K, fix to flip at $17K or fix to rent at $6K. Oh, see 6^th Pl above for RENTAL MATH, PITI should be slightly lower, around $650/mo so should gross $550/mo. Buy two and save….Call us for details, it’s just off Malaya, not Malaria!

 

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

  To Achieve Your Dreams Remember Your ABC’s:

-      Avoid negative sources, people, places, things and habits.

-      Believe in yourself.

-      Consider things from every angle.

-      Don’t give up and don’t give in.

-      Enjoy life today, yesterday is gone, tomorrow may never come.

-      Family and friends are hidden treasures, seek them and enjoy their riches.

-      Give more than you planned to.

-      Hang on to your dreams.

-      Ignore those who try to discourage you.

-      Just do it.

-      Keep trying no matter how hard it seems, it will get easier.

-      Love yourself first and most.

-      Make it happen.

-      Never lie, cheat or steal, always strike a fair deal.

-      Open your eyes and see things as they really are.

-      Practice makes perfect.

-      Quitters never win and winners never quit.

-      Read, study and learn about everything important in your life.

-      Stop procrastinating.

-      Take control of your own destiny.

-      Understand yourself in order to better understand others.

-      Visualize it.

-      Want it more than anything.

-      “Xcellerate” your efforts.

-      You are unique of all God’s creations, nothing can replace YOU.

-      Zero in on your target and go for it!
~Wanda Hope Carter