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BLACK FRIDAY, CYBER MONDAY WHERE’S THE DEAL?
Midnight shopping, camping overnight, waiting hours in line to save $10, out of stocks, backorders, crowds…what’s to like? The experience, the adventure? What is the best use of YOUR time? I didn’t see any real estate post-Thanksgiving “specials” going on. Everything is ON SALE (vis a vis “FOR SALE”) in today’s real estate marketplace; everyday is Black Friday or Cyber Monday or Super Saturday or Sensational Sunday, ad nausea.
Has the bottom dropped? The answer depends upon who you talk to and where. Overall, in America, I feel we have yet to hit bottom. Locally, we are close. Why is that important? We don’t want to buy at X and see value at 90%X in four weeks. Now if you buy right, none of this matters. The only big issue is what is “BUY RIGHT?” It’s like defining the “bubble.” Answers vary. I put the “bubble” at a 20% fall. “BUY RIGHT” is subjective, just like ARV. What is something worth? Will someone buy at appraisal (or will it appraise at the buy price?)? What you really need to be asking yourself (and others, if you need an “insanity check”) is WILL THIS MAKE ME MONEY? It’s that simple.
Is it a good time to buy a home or a bad time? Fannie Mae says 68% of Americans say “yes” and 29% just say “no.” More and more homeowners that have lost their homes would rather RENT than BUY. No surprise.
Foreclosures are having a dramatic effect on our children! 40% of US school districts report foreclosure as the main reason why homeless students. It’s not just homeowner’s kids, “40% of families facing eviction were renters whose landlords were foreclosed upon” reports the Washington Post citing the National Low Income Housing Coalition.
Second homes or vacation rentals? “Right now, the languishing housing market offers some lingering upsides for those who have a pot of investment dollars to burn. Home prices are low, financing is cheap and inventories are bulging. The planets have aligned over vacation rental acquisitions.” Here are the bullets:
· Prices as low as will go
· Interest rates as low as will go
· Inventory is high
· Hungry realtors readily available
While this is true for 2nd homes/vacation rentals, it is equally true for investing in rentals or flips.
Where’s the Interest? RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping up and down: 4.43% on 30-year fixed and 3.33% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows! Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower?
REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT
It’s business as usual! Changes will continue as lenders search for their sweet spot, balancing their foreclosed loan with selling the property. We’re seeing REOs priced well and priced high and everything in between. Same with short sales. Some appear to be great deals, especially if you can get the bank to sign off on the discount. We’re not quite sure if the lenders will start releasing more and more of their inventory AND if they will be more willing to unload at NOO prices. We’re getting mixed messages as above. Some lenders are doing light rehab in hopes of getting retail sale price, others are leaving their properties “as is.” As I’ve said before, look at 100 houses to learn what’s out there, what’s trashed, what’s secure, what’s available. Do your homework.
Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (December 11 is next date) meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY
Our inventory is low. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary. We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!
ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract. We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Florida (just kidding).
4725 Grant St, Denver. 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage. Private seller. Rented at $750/mo. Light fix up. Now at $58K. Drive by and call us for more info.
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
The important thing in life is to have great aim and to possess the aptitude and the perseverance to attain it. ~Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
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WHAT’S HOLDING YOU BACK?
These are unusual times. Unemployment remains high, consumer confidence remains low, foreclosures are still up “there”, our government is unable to change momentum, naysayers are saying “nay”, Black Friday has started 7-10 days early, and a small segment of our country is doing well: check this out, Greetings From Recoveryland! The top 10 metros poised to recover: Texaplex: Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston; New Silicon Valleys: Raleigh, Salt Lake City, North Virginia (no that’s not a state!); Heartland Honeys: Oklahoma City, Indianapolis and Des Moines. Most interesting. No California, no Florida, no Arizona, no Nevada. Good to know someone can spell “RECOVERY.”
Read about the new appraisal reform that takes effect April 1, 2011. No foolin’!
Silver lining? Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said “there appears to be a pent-up demand that eventually will be unleashed as banks resolve their issues with foreclosures and the labor market improves. However, tight credit and appraisals coming in below a negotiated price continue to constrain the market.“
What’s a homeowner’s net worth? Apparently 41 times more than a renter’s net worth, according to a NAR report!
Where’s the Interest? RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping up: 4.43% on 30-year fixed and 3.33% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows! Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower?
REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT
On a local level, we’re seeing more of the same. Pricing remains flat. OK, a few investors are closing their flips. More appear to be digging in to alternative strategies: rentals, rent to own, owner carry, Installment Land Contracts, etc. What’s the answer? Whatever works!
REOs appear to be slowly reentering our marketplace after a hard freeze. We hear rumors that hundreds of “shadow inventory” properties will be slowly released. That could mean better deals.
Local wholesale deals are getting better. I’ve been a harsh critic of the majority of wholesale deals being offered to the investor community. Most just don’t add up; they weren’t “deals”. Lately, I’ve been seeing numbers that almost make sense; in fact, some do make sense. I am encouraged. It’s to the point that it is almost EASY to cash flow with a rental property. $200, even $600/month cash flow on single units. However, more and more investors are taking a wait and see approach and watching the circus play out. Some may decide to enter the ring, others may miss out. I encourage all of you to network and assess the marketplace. It must make sense (and it does to many!).
Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club (December 11 is next date) meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY
We still have deals that can work as rentals, lease options, or even flips (if you have the patience and a strong constitution). Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary. We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!
ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract. We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Florida (just kidding).
4725 Grant St, Denver. 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage. Private seller. Rented at $750/mo. Light fix up. Reduced to $58K. Drive by and call us for more info.
1375 Knox Ct, Denver. 5 bedrooms, 2 baths and 4 car detached garage. This garage is bigger than most houses in this neighborhood! REO. Buy this at $109K fix up to $35K to flip.
21092 E 45th Av, Denver. Private owned. No this is not in Kansas! This GVR 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage house needs a little TLC. An owner occ has this U/C but we’re taking backups at $87.5K, rent ready under $10K or flip ready at $17K.
1079 Eagle St., Aurora. HUD. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1 car garage. Buy this at $95K, fix at $20K. ARV is around $160K. Elementary school is close by. Rent to own, rent or flip, last call.
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, therefore, is not an act but a habit. ~Aristotle
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DING, DONG, THE FLIP IS DEAD!
This may be a slight exaggeration but it’s time to shift our thinking. No longer can we count on flipping a property. This appears to ring true throughout our country with a few exceptions, neighborhoods, portions of Texas, even California. Potential homeowners must run through a tighter and tougher gauntlet of lender guidelines and conditions than ever before.
General consensus is that 1/3 of Americans cannot get a home loan. I heard a radio report that said credit scores of 620 used to be the starting point (to get a loan), now 640 can get you started. Great credit (best interest rates, points, etc) used to begin at 720, now it is 740. The bar has risen. I believe that 33% number is low although I have not seen supporting statistics.
Add increased buyer credit scrutiny to the list of reasons why houses are not selling: low consumer confidence, high unemployment, seasonal (who wants to move in November, December, or January?), depreciating home values….
So what are our alternatives? We must face reality and crunch numbers to see if we can make rentals work. Or rent to own, or Installment Land Contracts (Contract for Deeds). What IS working (this will be one of many Breakfast Club topics this Saturday)?
From the Good News or the Bad News Department: First the Good News: US homes lost to foreclosure drops 9 pct in Oct. Now the Bad News: the reason for the drop is that many major lenders suspended proceedings due to potentially improper practices. How ironic.
Realtytrac.com reports Top Foreclosure Cities: Las Vegas, Miami, Chicago, Phoenix, then West Palm Beach. On their “trendcenter” page, e.g., Nevada has 1 in every 79 houses report foreclosure filings in October 2010 compared to Vermont on the other end of the scale with only 1 in 14000. Quite a spread. BTW, Colorado reports 1 in 374.
Where’s the Interest? RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping around 4.26% on 30-year fixed and 3.24% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows! Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower?
REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT
So flipping is flopping. Get over it or get out of the market. Many local investors believe that flipping is still the optimal exit/disposition strategy. Flipping is becoming more difficult and you must work harder to create opportunity. People are making money is this market. Our market. It’s just that more and more are switching strategies, adapting to what works better.
HUD has started to release their suspended sales. Rumor has it that local HUD is slowly releasing over 200 properties that stacked up with recent contractor rewards. Unfortunately, their appraisers must be under orders to “appraise high.” Our market is down, yet asking prices remain high. It will just take more time for the market to correct. Make no mistake, it will correct. Basic supply and demand 101: lower prices = more sales, even if it’s to investors; even if it takes a few months. The HUD pecking order has changed, too: gov’t agencies get first dibs, then non-profs, then owner occs, then investors after 30 or more days.
We see more investors retreating to the sidelines to watch…and wait….Does that mean more opportunity for the rest of us? Could be.
Denver Metro home resales drop 28% year over year, yet average sold prices went up 9.6%. Average DOM is up to 104. Inventory is up 12.75%, year over year.
How about some good news: Apartment vacancies at 3-year low in Denver area. SFH vacancies are even lower. Average rent rates have risen year over year. Get the hint?
Don’t forget our Breakfast Club meets tomorrow, November 13 at 0700 at NY Deli News Restaurant on E Hampden. No guest speakers, just good friendly discussions about our local industry: what’s selling, what’s renting, who’s lending, who’s rehabbing, who has a good ‘crete contractor, who has a rent to own property (BTW, lenders have lists of RTO candidates)….See you there! Be hungry for breakfast, knowledge, and networking!
Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY
We still have deals that can work as rentals, lease options, or even flips (if you have the patience and a strong constitution). Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary. We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!
ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract. We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Florida (just kidding).
8451 Rosemary St, Commerce City. 5 bedrooms, 4 bathrooms, built in 2000. Over ½ acre. Over 3000 sq ft. Fix this REO for under $20K. Price this baby right to flip or lighter fix to rent or rent to own.
4725 Grant St, Denver. 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage. Private seller. Rented at $750/mo. Light fix up. Buy for $62K. Drive by this gem and call us for more info.
1375 Knox Ct, Denver. 5 bedrooms, 2 baths and 4 car detached garage. This garage is bigger than most houses in this neighborhood! REO. Buy this at $109K fix up to $35K to flip.
21092 E 45th Av, Denver. Private owned. No this is not in Kansas! This GVR 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage house needs a little TLC. Buy this at $87.5K, rent ready under $10K or flip ready at $17K.
624 Stuart St, Denver. HUD. Cute, cheap. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1 car garage. Buy this for $64K, flip or rent. The numbers work as rental, flip or rto.
1079 Eagle St., Aurora. HUD. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1 car garage. Buy this at $95K, fix at $20K. ARV is around $160K. Elementary school is close by. Rent to own, rent or flip, your choice.
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
On a gloomy, rainy morning, it came little eight-year-old Tommy’s turn to say the blessing at breakfast. “We thank Thee for this beautiful day,” he prayed.
His mother asked him why he said that when the day was anything but beautiful.
“Mother,” said he, with rare wisdom, “never judge a day by its weather.” ~Anonymous
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THESE ARE BUYING TIMES
As an old Willie Nelson song goes: “you got the money, honey, I got the time…” Or is it “the best of times and the worst of times” from Dicken’s Tale of Two Cities? It looks like this “buying period” will be “hot” for at least 6 months, until Spring, 2011, maybe beyond. Don’t be one of those who looks back and says “gosh, if I had only taken action when the market was down…” Don’t second guess yourself or the market. Buying signs are everywhere (signs as indicators, not physical signs, although that is true, too): inventory, prices, market confidence, great ROI, low interest, motivated sellers. What’s the risk? Why the hesitation? Oh, yeah, the market could drop further. How much lower can it go when you can now buy a 2 bedroom condo in Phoenix for $10K (but…but…the HOA is suspect and you can’t get a loan…yeah, you can always find or create excuses for NOT taking action). Or, like the slick head says on late night TV: YOU CAN’T AFFORD NOT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS! The bottom line should be “WILL THIS DEAL MAKE YOU MONEY?” There are tools out there, we have tools that can help you determine the potential of the property, whether it’s rent, rent to own, owner carry, wholesale, or a flip. One thing nearly everyone in our industry will agree upon: deals are everywhere (and some are better than others!)! Realtytimes.com confirms it is a good time to buy.
Hedge fund honcho Paulson says “the time to buy is right now.” What more do you need? Oh, confirmation that it is a good deal; that could help.
Close to retirement? Why refinance? Find out here!
Pending Sales of Government-Owned REOs May Experience Delays. This has hit us locally. Not sure when this will unwind. Rumor has it one local HUD contractor has stopped “everything” until official word comes.
Here’s an interesting discussion about frozen foreclosures: who wins? You or the banks? Why does it have to be “either/or?”
Where’s the Interest? RATES REMAIN LOW. They are creeping around 4.26% on 30-year fixed and 3.24% on 5/1 ARMs. Rates remain at or near record lows! Can you afford to wait for rates to go lower?
REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT
When will this madness end? Expect this to be a slow process. Expect to ride out your deals that cash flow but you’re upside down. How long? 5, maybe 10 years. Years ago I heard the term “Market Correction.” While it usually applies to the Stock Market, it also applies to the Real Estate Market, a out-of-whack market, high inflation, where investors didn’t mind a negative cash flow on a rental because double digit appreciation (or inflation) make it work. Today, the market is more realistic, more sensible, dare I say, more logical, more predictable. I’d love to be wrong but I don’t see blue skies and smooth sailing ahead. This weather report predicts storms ahead. We can weather those storms if we’re prepared. I know many investors who were not prepared or didn’t see this coming. Is there opportunity? Absolutely. Do your homework, educate yourself, take a seasoned investor to lunch. Find your niche, your sweet spot, what works for you.
Call us with tips, rumors, conjectures, and cold cases (we’re thirsty!). We appreciate feedback on both our Newsletter / Blogs and Breakfast Club meetings (November 13). Thank you all for your news tips and leads! If you’re not on our list and want to be, LET US KNOW. Call, Write, E-mail, drop by. Thank you for helping us help you!
INVENTORY
We still have deals that work as flips, rentals, or lease options. Call us, 303 338-8000, for more information or with questions. FU and ARV are estimates. Actual results may vary. We post our deals when we get them so bookmark our site and visit often. Early zeal gets the deal! Early zest gets the best!
ALL properties we have listed are Under Contract. We have two sections: FOR SALE and UNDER CONTRACT. FOR SALE section means they are available to the investor. Once we have a buyer and are waiting to close, they move to the UNDER CONTRACT section. Once closed, they retire to Florida (just kidding).
4725 Grant St, Denver. 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 1 car detached garage. Private seller. Rented at $750/mo. Light fix up. Buy for $62K. Drive by this gem and call us for more info.
1375 Knox Ct, Denver. 5 bedrooms, 2 baths and 4 car detached garage. This garage is bigger than most houses in this neighborhood! REO. Buy this at $109K fix up to $35K to flip.
21092 E 45th Av, Denver. Private owned. No this is not in Kansas! This GVR 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage house needs a little TLC. Buy this at $87.5K, rent ready under $10K or flip ready at $17K.
624 Stuart St, Denver. HUD. Cute, cheap. 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, and 1 car garage. Buy this for $64K, flip or rent. The numbers work as rental, flip or rto.
1079 Eagle St., Aurora. HUD. 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1 car garage. Buy this at $95K, fix at $20K. ARV is around $160K. Elementary school is close by. Rent to own, rent or flip, your choice.
Bon Homepetit!
John Fisher
www.happycanyongroup.com
303 338-8000
QUOTE OF THE WEEK:
Knowing is not enough; we must apply.
Willing is not enough; we must do.
~Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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