WHO’s HOLDING BACK?

We heard rumors that banks were keeping their foreclosures off the market. We hear more rumors that they have started “releasing” their properties and foreclosing again.

If true, what does that mean to the investor community? 

·        First, we could be getting some very good deals.

·        Second, we could see a growth in lender Short Sales.

·        Third, more properties could be up for county auction.

All is well and good. What does that mean to us in Colorado? Is there any truth to the oft-heard observation that Denver runs contrary to the left and right coasts?  (some real estate pundits go so far as to include Colorado mountain homes in that left/right coast trending)  If the rest of the country continues to “tank” are we pulling ourselves up and out of the REO/Foreclosure quagmire?  It looks like it to me. We’re witnessing change already. See our Weather Report for more details.

Don’t believe me? Check this: Foreclosures fall in Colorado, but another wave may be coming and Colo. foreclosure activity down for the quarter.

What about Federal Intervention…oops, Stimulus Packaging 101? Our own Congressmen Perlmutter gets a write up in Forbes stating what many of us see as the obvious: Housing tax credit is working. “Colorado housing officials announced that first-time homebuyers could apply for up to $6,000 for a down payment and closing costs, with interest waived until the homebuyers receive their federal tax credit.” Gosh, what a nice state we live in! The article goes on to state that Congress may well extend this tax credit.

If our government REALLY wants to stimulate housing, they should offer tax credits to EVERYONE. That means non-first time home buyers AND investors.  It could happen! What an impact that would have…yeah, an inflationary one…wait! It’s already happening…at least in our back yard.

Don’t get too confident now, here’s another “prediction” many of us saw coming: Is commercial real estate a time bomb? Bad commercial loans may be “next.” Vacancy signs in strip malls are as common as code violations in Aurora. We don’t talk too much about commercial real estate, it’s a different specie. Nonetheless, small businesses and many large businesses are feeling the pain. Everyone is affected one way or another.

 

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Snow, rain, sunshine, sleet; we got it all right here in Denver.  

We keep talking about “bottoming out” in our marketplace. What are we seeing? Montbello pricing appears to have bumped up $20K or more for buyers AND sellers. Same thing in Thornton…even Commerce City is rising. What’s going on? Oh, RECOVERY. Could be. It appears that Obama’s tax credits are helping. Interest rates remain low. Yet many potential homebuyers remain hesitant to commit.  Yeah, it’s a con game: CONfidence!  Is it growing? Could be. 

Mixed messages? Yeah, looks like banks are going to purge properties. That could cause prices to fall…or could it? Remember Econ 101, supply and demand. We’re seeing buying frenzies at auctions (BTW, we’re seeing pseudo-auctions in MLS, what’s with that???).

 

INVENTORY

4770 Zuni St, Denver. North Highlands. Freeway view! Buy at $88K, fix at $12K to rent or $15K to flip.  Check this HUD out. Check the pix out!

 

We anticipate more properties as we, too, raise the ante.  What bandwagon?

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence - and then success is sure. ~Mark Twain

 

       WHO’S YOUR COMPETITION?

What gets you going?  Why do you do what you do?  Who’s responsible for you? Right. It’s you. You are your competition. I know I am. I hold me back, no one else.  So how do you explain our real estate market conditions? Read our Real Estate Weather Report below.

In an effort to get our economy bouncing, Obama says timing right for millions to refinance. So it comes as no surprise that we’re reaching record refi applications.  Here’s another shocker: Loan modifications rise; many don’t pare payments. It seems that lenders may not be “walking the talk with loan mods.  From the good news department: I heard yesterday that owner occ jumbos are now at 90% LTV and 5% interest with cash back. What’s not to like?  Oh, Newsweek says the riskiest states to buy real estate are California, Florida, and upper Midwest (Michigan, etc). Surprised? Tho’t so.  Forbes Magazine rates Denver as the 6^th best city to buy real estate with pricing last this low in June, 2003 (NYC is the “best”). Oh, that same report says the 3,2,1 WORST cities right now are (drum roll and raised eyebrows…) Detroit coming in at #3, Phoenix at #2, and Las Vegas winning the contest. Gosh, do you think the best can be the worst? Many of us remember when Phoenix and Las Vegas were literally HOT, but who can remember when Detroit was anything but the punch line of real estate jokes (maybe 1949 was a good year…)

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

Alright, what is really going on in Denver? It’s not just the weather that’s getting warmer, it’s our market. I had targeted a dozen REO’s to look at in Aurora earlier this week and only 2 were still standing after two days.  Wow. What’s with that? Oh, Competition.  Maybe. “Highest and Best” remains the battle cry. How HIGH can we go? How badly do we want that property?  Enough to pay “too much”?  Who is willing to “PAY MORE and TAKE LESS?”  More and more investors, that’s who…What else? Rents remain steady. Owner Occs are getting stronger and stronger every week. Maybe that Stimulus Package is “paying dividends…”  Tax breaks abound. 

Have we bottomed out? Contrary to high paid prognosticators, I think we have. I see “it” every day. How about you?

 

Oh, don’t forget our Breakfast Club this Saturday, April 11 0700-0900 at Perkins near Colorado Bv and I-25.  This may be our last meet at that site. It seems we’re experiencing GROWING PAINS. Perkins has limited the “Boom Boom Room” to 45 people; more means safety and fire hazard. I don’t want to change our format with memberships, fees, yadda, yadda. That’s not who we are. Let’s keep things simple and basic.  Our meetings provide a unique opportunity for seasoned investors to network and share trends and tips. We welcome alternative venue suggestions. Let us know. 

Yeah, inventory remains low.  MLS inventory is low, too. We are not seeing what we would consider great deals out there with other wholesalers.  Do your diligence

INVENTORY

4770 Zuni St, Denver. North Highlands. Freeway view! Buy at $88K, fix at $12K to rent or $15K to flip.  Check this HUD out. Check the pix out!

 

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:  My grandfather once told me that there were two kinds of people: those who do the work and those who take the credit. He told me to try to be in the first group; there was much less competition. ~Indira Gandhi

 

SKIM, SCAM, SCUM

 

There are too many cheats in our business. Where do they keep coming from? Out of the would work?  The could work?  I continue to hear stories of investors scamming other investors, taking their money, conning them into deals that can make them a LOT of money. Never forget when things sound too good to be true…Yeah, some people really make it, they make things happen, make things work. Do not expect this to be easy. Expect hard work. Do it right. Do it well. Do it.

How’s our economy doing? It’s up, it’s down, it’s sideways.  Some cashed in at the right time. Most didn’t.  Many stock portfolios are hovering at 50-60% of where they were 3Q 2008. Hey, there’s many ways to lose money…and many ways to make money. We just happen to be in one of the better industries right now.

 

Mortgage rates continue to DROP.  How low will it go???  So what? Well, this means lots of refinancing.   Money Magazine has a MAP of our country that estimates when the market will BOTTOM OUT. Here’s more details of Denver drop.  I am not sure I agree that Denver has another year or more before we hit rock bottom!

Oh, and HERE’s a website our government created to help HOMEOWNERS determine their options.

 

REAL ESTATE WEATHER REPORT

So, what’s happening in Denver? Owner occ deals continue to grow.  Refinancing has brought new life to both title companies and mortgage brokers. Even cash backs?  We heard of a local credit union offering HELOCs at 3.25%. 

So, do your diligence, your homework. Know your numbers, sharpen your pencil and dive in!

 

We have a few properties in the wings.  We won’t list the pending shorts until we have an official lender sign off. As many of you know, that can take weeks or months. Thanks for your patience.

 

INVENTORY

4770 Zuni St, Denver. North Highlands. Freeway view! Buy at $88K, fix at $12K to rent or $15K to flip.  Check this HUD out.

Bon Homepetit!

 

John Fisher

www.happycanyongroup.com

303 338-8000

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:  Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find it.~Andre Gide